Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs 27 May 2026 Prediction

The Western Conference final has fully lived up to expectations. The series is tied 2-2, so both teams are effectively starting over. However, the Thunder still have home-court advantage as the best team from the regular season. If the Spurs want to get past the defending champions, they need to take one of the two remaining games in Oklahoma. Will the Texas team take a more aggressive approach in Game 5?

Oklahoma’s Worst Game in Six Years

Game 4 is difficult to analyze because the Thunder essentially did not show up (82-103). The 82 points stand out in particular, as Oklahoma had not scored that few in a playoff game since August 2020. Mark Daigneault’s team shot only 33% from the field and 18% from three while committing 17 turnovers. For context, in the previous three games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company averaged 45% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc while committing no more than 13 turnovers. Still, there is little doubt that Oklahoma can respond well after a poor performance: the defending champions have not lost two straight games in the postseason since May 2024. Chet Holmgren has been useful, although the matchup against the Spurs is difficult for him because he often has to deal with Wembanyama.

Chet has scored at least 10 points in each of his last three games against San Antonio.

Oklahoma Predicted Lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander — Dort, Jalen Williams — Holmgren, Hartenstein

Will not play: Sorber (injury)

Manager: Mark Daigneault

San Antonio Has Found a Positive Trend

Why did the Spurs come out with such intensity in Game 4? First, a loss would have left them with very little chance of reaching the playoff final. Second, Gregg Popovich visited the team’s locker room for the first time after the Game 3 loss. San Antonio itself was not outstanding offensively, shooting 39% from the field and 27% from three, but it completely neutralized Oklahoma’s attack. It is worth noting that Johnson’s team has produced a strong run for the second straight game: it opened Game 3 with a 15-0 run and had a 16-0 stretch in the first quarter of Game 4. The Texans know how they need to play, but because of a lack of experience and overall skill, they do not always execute the plan consistently. Vassell is having an excellent series as the fourth option in the starting lineup.

Devin has recorded at least 13 points and 6 rebounds in every game against Oklahoma.

San Antonio Predicted Lineup: Fox — Castle, Vassell — Champagnie, Wembanyama

Will not play: Jones-Garcia (injury)

Manager: Mitch Johnson

What to Know

• Oklahoma is averaging 57.8 first-half points in the playoffs, the second-best mark in the league.
• San Antonio has won the third quarter in 9 of its last 11 games.

San Antonio Is Ready to Compete Physically

In the regular season, there was no doubt about San Antonio’s edge, as the Spurs won four of five head-to-head games. In the more physical playoff matchups, the series is tied 2-2.

Oklahoma vs San Antonio Prediction: San Antonio Handicap (+6.5) at 1.75

• Main prediction: Jalen Williams and Mitchell, two of Oklahoma’s best secondary shot creators and playmakers behind Gilgeous-Alexander, did not appear in Game 4. In that situation, defending becomes much easier for the Spurs, as they can focus much more attention on Shai. San Antonio’s roster situation looks better because Fox and Harper are available, even though both had been questionable. Wembanyama and company earned a very important win in the previous game, which should give them confidence before Game 5 in Oklahoma. J-Dub and Mitchell are likely not at 100%, so even if they play, the home team could still face major difficulties. The pick is San Antonio to win with a (+6.5) handicap at 1.75.
• Total prediction: The Spurs scored 103 points in the previous game despite shooting below 40%. Since the start of the series, they have scored at least 108 points in three of four games. The Thunder have an elite defense, but they have still allowed at least 107 points in 9 of 12 playoff games. One option is San Antonio team total over 104.5 at 1.84.
• High-odds prediction: This is another statistically supported high-odds option for those who do not want to pick the winner. The third quarter was the highest-scoring quarter in all four games of the series. Consider highest-scoring quarter — third at 3.31.