Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs 31 May 2026 Prediction

New York is resting and preparing for the upcoming NBA Finals, while Oklahoma and San Antonio are still battling in a best-of-seven series. It is also worth remembering the champions’ curse: since 2019, no team has managed to defend the title. Could the young Spurs and Wemby really pull off the upset?

Thunder Do Not Lose Decisive Games

Oklahoma had a poor Game 6 in San Antonio, losing 118-91. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was still the team’s leading scorer, but only with 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting. That said, Daigneault’s team was also beaten heavily in Game 4 on the road, 102-83, before responding with a confident home win, 127-114. The Thunder are 17-3 at Paycom Center since last season’s championship run, and they have won both home Game 7s in that stretch, beating the Nuggets 125-93 and the Pacers 103-91. In this series, 31-year-old Alex Caruso remains a key player and the team’s second-leading scorer behind Shai.

Alex has scored at least 15 points in 4 of 6 games, while shooting 56% from three-point range.

Oklahoma Predicted Lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander — Dort, Jalen Williams — Holmgren, Hartenstein

Will not play: Sorber (injury)

Manager: Mark Daigneault

A Strong Spurs Performance With a Real Case for the Finals

San Antonio’s young core, led by 39-year-old Johnson, was on the brink of elimination but delivered a strong two-way performance in Game 6, winning 118-91. The key stretch was a 20-0 Spurs run in the third quarter, when the Thunder failed to score for seven minutes. Wembanyama led the team with an aggressive approach, taking 21 shots from the field and finishing with 28 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks. San Antonio also defended Gilgeous-Alexander cleanly, limiting him to only 3 free-throw attempts after he had averaged 9 per game in the series. As for the Spurs’ chances on the road, they have a strong 34-15 away record since the start of the 2025-26 season. Second-year guard Stephon Castle remains Victor’s key support option, impacting the game on both ends of the floor.

Stephon has recorded at least 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists in 5 of 6 games against Oklahoma.

San Antonio Predicted Lineup: Fox — Castle, Vassell — Champagnie, Wembanyama

Will not play: Jones-Garcia (injury)

Manager: Mitch Johnson

One Win Away From a Major Statement

The Spurs were better in the regular-season head-to-head series, winning 4 of 5 meetings, and they are now close to finishing the job in the playoffs with the series tied 3-3.

Oklahoma vs San Antonio Prediction: San Antonio to Win With a (+4.5) Handicap at 1.75

• Main prediction: The Thunder originally looked like clear favorites because of their roster depth, especially given the strong production from their bench. Their leaders did not have to consistently play 30-plus minutes, unlike San Antonio’s main players. But with Game 7 now here, the Thunder have not fully used that advantage. It would not be surprising if the Spurs leaned on a six-man rotation for the full 48 minutes, because there is no room for caution. Oklahoma is without Mitchell, who has averaged 15-plus points in the postseason. It is also worth remembering the NBA Cup semifinal, when this young Spurs team handled a physical, playoff-style battle and won 111-109. Since then, Wemby and his teammates have continued to improve, while Oklahoma may not be able to count on a fully healthy Jalen Williams, judging by his 1 point in 10 minutes in Game 6. Home court may not be enough for the Thunder here. The pick is San Antonio to win with a (+4.5) handicap at 1.75.
• Total points prediction: We expect a tight, physical deciding game, but the line on San Antonio’s team total looks too low. The Spurs have scored at least 108 points in 5 of 6 games in this series. Oklahoma can defend, but it has still allowed 107-plus points in 11 of 14 postseason games. Consider San Antonio team total over 104.5 at 1.80.
• Long-shot prediction: In the last four games, one of the teams won by at least 13 points. Since the start of the regular season, the Spurs have also won by 10-plus points in 5 of their 7 head-to-head victories. A riskier option is San Antonio to win by 11-20 points.