Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins 29 April 2026 Prediction

How often do you see a team come back from 0-3 down in a series? Pittsburgh is trying to pull off a historic comeback and has already cut the deficit to one game. The question now is whether the veteran core can level the series and force Game 7, or whether the Flyers will finish the job at home.

The Flyers Are Losing Momentum

Everything started perfectly for Philadelphia. The team won the first three games of the series and looked set to move into the second round without much trouble. But the sweep never came. Pittsburgh first won in Philadelphia, 4-2, and then followed it up with a 3-2 win at home.

One important development came after Game 4, when Matvei Michkov was taken out of the lineup. The Russian forward has not recorded a single point in this playoff run, and the coaching staff decided to make a change. Alex Bump replaced him and scored right away in his playoff debut, but that goal still was not enough to secure a win.

Predicted Lineup

Philadelphia: Vladar (Ersson) – Sanheim, Ristolainen – Foerster, Zegras, Tippett

Full roster: defensemen – York, Drysdale, Seeler, Juulsen; forwards – Konecny, Dvorak, Martone, Barkey, Cates, Bump, Glendening, Couturier, Hathaway

Out: Abols, Grebenkin (both injured), Andre (questionable), Michkov (coach’s decision)

Manager: Rick Tocchet

Silovs Has Changed the Series

It took Pittsburgh’s coaching staff three games to realize that acquiring Stuart Skinner from Edmonton was not the answer in net. The team lost all three games he started. Once Arturs Silovs took over, the results changed quickly. In both of his appearances, the Latvian goaltender posted at least a .900 save percentage and allowed only four goals combined.

Pittsburgh’s veterans have also stepped up. Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang both recorded points in each of the last two games. Another note from Game 5 was the playoff debut of Ilya Solovyov. Dan Muse had positive things to say about the Belarusian defenseman afterward:

"In limited minutes, he did what we asked him to do."

Pittsburgh: Silovs (Skinner) – Wotherspoon, Karlsson – Rakell, Crosby, Rust

Full roster: defensemen – Girard, Letang, Shea, Clifton; forwards – Chinakhov, Novak, Malkin, Soderblom, Kindel, Mantha, Dewar, Lizotte, Acciari

Out: Hollander, Jones (both injured)

Manager: Dan Muse

A Chance to Make History

Only four teams in NHL history have come back from 0-3 down in a playoff series: Toronto in 1942, the Islanders in 1975, Philadelphia in 2010, and Los Angeles in 2014. Pittsburgh is now trying to become the fifth. After dropping the first three games, Muse’s team adjusted and has now won two in a row. In the most recent game, the Penguins also finished with the edge in expected goals, 3.3 to 2.3, which matched the outcome on the scoreboard.

What You Need to Know

Philadelphia ranks among the three worst playoff teams in xG, generating only 2.6 expected goals per game.

The Flyers have converted just 13.3% of their power-play chances, the fifth-worst mark in the postseason.

Pittsburgh is allowing 1.8 goals per game in the second period, with only Edmonton posting a worse number.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh Prediction: Pittsburgh to Win at 1.93

Main pick: After winning the last two games, Pittsburgh now clearly believes it can take this series all the way back. Philadelphia also was not especially strong at home during the regular season, finishing only 11th in the Eastern Conference in home points. It also matters that Pittsburgh has finished ahead in expected goals in two of the last three meetings. Based on that, Pittsburgh to win at 1.93 looks like the best option. A projected correct score is 2-3.

Total pick: The closer a series gets to the finish line, the higher the price of every mistake. That usually leads to more cautious hockey and tighter defensive play. This matchup has not produced many high-scoring games anyway, as three of the five games in the series have stayed under six total goals. With Daniel Vladar posting a .910 save percentage in the playoffs and Silovs at .920, under 5.5 at 1.99 looks like a strong play.

Power-play goals pick: Over the last three games, the Flyers have scored only two goals with the man advantage. Pittsburgh, over that same stretch, has scored three power-play goals. Still, in four of the five games in this series, the teams have combined for fewer than two goals in 5-on-4 situations. The better option here is under 1.5 total power-play goals.