Vitoria vs Chapecoense 7 October 2026 Prediction

  Prediction by   Gevorg Danielyan     October 6, 2026 

Vitória sit 13th with 33 points, four clear of the relegation zone. Chapecoense are last with 18. Home form has been crucial for Vitória: they have earned 28 of their 33 points at Barradão and won all three home games against teams currently in the relegation zone. The first meeting between these sides ended 1-1.

Vitória Rely on Their Home Form

After beating Grêmio and drawing with Mirassol, Jair Ventura’s side lost 3-1 to Cruzeiro. Vitória have won just one of their last five league games, but they have been stronger at home against teams near the bottom of the table. They beat Remo and Internacional 2-0, then Grêmio 1-0. Those results show they can take points in games where they are expected to control possession.

Scoring remains a problem. Vitória have 28 goals through 28 rounds, the fewest in the league. Even when they control possession and territory, they do not always build a comfortable lead. Renê is their main finisher, while wing play and set pieces could be important against a side that has conceded 53 goals.

Chapecoense Have Started Picking Up Points

Chapecoense remain in a difficult position, but their recent results have improved. In their last five league games, they beat São Paulo and Corinthians, drew with Atlético Mineiro and lost twice. They scored in every game. After a poor first part of the season, Rafael Lacerda has found a more effective setup. Garcés, Marcinho and Eduardo can exploit space when Vitória lose possession.

Chapecoense also competed well on their last trip to Belo Horizonte, earning a 1-1 draw. They still allow plenty of chances, but their recent form suggests they can keep this game close, even if they concede first.

Vitória vs Chapecoense Predicted Lineup

Vitória (4-2-3-1): Arcanjo; Silva, Kaká, Cândido, Jamerson; Martínez, Gonçalves; Erick, Matheuzinho, Tarzia; Renê

Unavailable: Laquintana, Barralhas, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Souza, Mendes, Ramon, Riccieli, Wallace, Pato (all injured)

Manager: Jair Ventura

Chapecoense (4-2-3-1): Anderson; Dudu, Faria, Doma, Pacheco; Camilo, Felipe; Marcinho, Augusto, Garcés; Túlio

Unavailable: Paulo (suspended); Heitor, Alves, Carvalheira, Balieiro, Tubarão, Robert, Rossi, Caetano (all injured)

Manager: Rafael Lacerda

Vitória vs Chapecoense Prediction: Draw at 3.80

Main pick: Vitória’s home record is strong, but their recent form makes the short odds on a home win unappealing. Chapecoense took points in three of their last five games and drew the first meeting with Vitória. The pick is a draw at 3.80. We estimate a 30% chance, making odds above 3.33 worth considering.

Goals pick: Vitória have scored in their last four league games, and Chapecoense have scored in each of their last five. Chapecoense have the league’s worst defensive record, while Vitória conceded three times in their most recent home game. The pick is both teams to score at 1.80. We estimate a 60% chance, making odds above 1.67 worth considering.