Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo 14 May 2026 Prediction

Real Madrid lost El Clasico 2-0 and allowed Barcelona to clinch the title at Camp Nou. It was another blow in a disappointing trophyless season for Los Blancos.

In Matchday 36, Madrid hosts already relegated Real Oviedo at the Santiago Bernabeu. Neither team has major table objectives left, but the question is whether Alvaro Arbeloa’s side still has enough pride to answer the criticism with a strong performance.

Only Pride Remains

Real Madrid is in poor form. The loss to Barcelona extended its difficult run: just two wins in the last eight matches across all competitions. The situation is made worse by tension inside the squad, including fights, scandals, and provocative behavior from Mbappe. In the final three rounds, the team’s leaders will likely try to avoid injuries ahead of the 2026 World Cup, but Madrid is unlikely to simply go through the motions at the Bernabeu.

At home this season, Real Madrid has looked strong. The team has created plenty in attack, averaging 2.1 xG per match. With enough quality finishers in the squad, Madrid has scored more than two goals per league home game on average. That attacking output helped Los Blancos win 14 of their 17 home league matches. Still, Barcelona did not drop a single point at Camp Nou, which became an important factor in the title race.

A Bridge to the Future

Oviedo has been relegated. The reasons are clear: poor managerial decisions and a weak squad. The team improved under Guillermo Almada and recorded a few notable wins, including a 3-0 victory over Celta, but it lacked consistency. Over the last four rounds, Oviedo has scored only two goals, which ended its hopes of survival.

Interestingly, Oviedo has been more efficient away from home. Across 17 road matches, the visitors averaged 1.08 xG and scored 17 goals. By comparison, they managed only nine league goals at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere all season. In the previous round, Almada’s team drew 0-0 with Getafe. A win against Jose Bordalas’ side would have kept its mathematical survival hopes alive, but that chance is gone.

What to Know

• Oviedo has conceded more than two goals in seven of its last 10 away matches in La Liga.
• Real Madrid has conceded in the second half in six of its last eight league matches.
• Both teams have scored in seven of the last nine matches involving Los Blancos.

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo Predicted Lineup

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois — Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Asencio, F. Garcia — Tchouameni, Pitarch — Diaz, Bellingham, Vinicius — G. Garcia

Out: Rodrygo, Militao, Guler, Mendy, Valverde (all injured), Mbappe, Ceballos (both doubtful)

Manager: Alvaro Arbeloa

Real Oviedo (4-2-3-1): Escandell — Vidal, Calvo, Costas, Alhassan — Fonseca, Colombatto — Chaira, Reina, Fernandez — Vinas

Out: Dominguez (injured), Dendoncker, Bailly (both doubtful), Sibo, Lopez (both suspended)

Manager: Guillermo Almada

Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo Prediction: Real Madrid -1.5 at 1.65

• Main Pick: Oviedo has faded in the final rounds. The team was still trying to push forward, but its defense looked weak, conceding six goals across four matches. After relegation was confirmed, motivation may drop further, especially with a major squad rebuild ahead. Real Madrid needs a response after the loss at Camp Nou, and an underdog opponent is a good chance to deliver one. The Bernabeu will expect a serious performance, so the pick is Real Madrid -1.5 at 1.65.
• Goals Pick: A high-scoring match looks likely. Real Madrid has conceded in 11 of its last 12 La Liga rounds. Courtois is still working his way back into rhythm, and the Madrid defense has not been reliable. Oviedo can be dangerous on the break, scoring six goals across its last four away league matches. Real Madrid should score, but the visitors also have a chance. The recommended bet is both teams to score — yes at 1.82.
• Correct Score Pick: Real Madrid averages 2.3 goals per home league match, and a relegated Oviedo side with low morale is unlikely to stop the hosts from scoring again. The visitors also have squad issues, with two starters suspended. Still, Oviedo should have a chance to get on the scoreboard, as it has shown some bite away from home and scored against Espanyol and Celta. Madrid should still win clearly, so the suggested correct score is 3-1 at 10.00.