Arsenal vs Burnley 18 May 2026 Prediction

Arsenal is two steps away from a long-awaited league title. The first obstacle does not look especially difficult. Burnley, in its current state, looks like a manageable opponent for the Gunners.

In the most recent head-to-head meeting, Arsenal earned a controlled 2-0 away win. This time, the match moves to the Emirates. Can Burnley avoid a heavy defeat?

Arsenal: Is the Slump Over?

The poor run appears to be behind Arsenal. April losses to Bournemouth (2-1) and Man City (2-1) seemed to raise questions about the team’s confidence. However, the Gunners responded well with three straight Premier League wins without conceding. They beat Newcastle (1-0), Fulham (3-0), and West Ham (1-0). Mikel Arteta’s team also got past Atletico (1-1, 1-0) and reached its first Champions League final in 20 years.

This will be Arsenal’s final home match before a run of away games. The Emirates has been a major advantage this season: Arsenal has 14 wins in 18 home league matches with a 40:11 goal difference, with only Man City slightly better.

Burnley: Consistency in a Negative Way

Burnley has not changed much. Unfortunately for the Clarets, that consistency has been negative. Yes, last round they managed to take points from Aston Villa in a 2-2 draw. However, results like that have been rare and look more like exceptions than a real trend. Losing streaks have been much more common for this team.

Burnley has already lost 23 times in 36 rounds, with only Wolverhampton losing more often (24). The main reason is a weak defense. Burnley has conceded 73 goals so far, an average of 2.03 per match.

What to Know

• Arsenal has kept a clean sheet in 8 of its last 13 matches across all competitions. 
• Burnley has been behind at halftime in 19 league matches, the worst mark in the league.
• No more than 3 goals have been scored in each of Arsenal’s last 17 matches. 

Predicted Lineup for Arsenal vs Burnley

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya – Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori – Lewis-Skelly, Rice – Saka, Eze, Trossard – Gyokeres

Out: Merino, Timber, White (all injured), Calafiori (questionable)

Manager: Mikel Arteta 

Burnley (5-4-1): Weiss – Walker, Esteve, Tuanzebe, Ekdal, Pires – Tchaouna, Florentino, Ugochukwu, Anthony – Flemming

Out: Beyer, Cullen, Roberts (all injured), Mejbri (questionable)

Manager: interim manager Michael Jackson 

Referee: Paul Tierney

Tierney is one of the more lenient referees in the current Premier League season by several key statistical indicators, including yellow cards, fouls, and penalties. He has shown no more than 3 yellow cards in 6 of 11 Arsenal matches and 4 of 6 Burnley matches.

• Has officiated 11 Premier League matches in the 2025/26 season
• Averages 3.27 yellow cards and 19.91 fouls per match
• Has awarded 1 penalty (9%)
• Has sent players off twice (18%)

Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction: Arsenal -2.5 Handicap at 1.87

• Main Pick: A matchup between one of the Premier League’s best defenses and one of its weakest does not offer much uncertainty on paper. Burnley has been poor for most of the season. The Clarets have little motivation left and are close to relegation back to the Championship, where the club has traditionally looked more comfortable. The 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last round does not erase a long list of poor defeats against teams clearly below Arsenal in quality: 3-1 losses to Fulham and Leeds, a 4-1 loss to Nottingham, and a 2-0 loss to Brighton. Arsenal, meanwhile, recently beat that same Fulham side 3-0 without major issues. The pick is Arsenal -2.5 handicap at 1.87. 
• Total Pick: Burnley ranks last in the league in average xG at 0.87. Its actual scoring rate is slightly higher at 1.03 goals per match. Still, away against an Arsenal side that has kept a clean sheet in 10 of 18 home league matches, Burnley should have limited attacking chances. Arteta’s team also does not usually play very open soccer: no more than 3 goals have been scored in 17 straight Arsenal matches. The pick is Under 3.5 Goals at 2.01. 
• Correct Score Pick: Recently, Burnley failed to score against Everton (2-0), Bournemouth (0-0), Brighton (2-0), and Man City (1-0), all teams that can defend well when needed. Its chances of scoring against Arsenal look limited. A controlled home win for the favorite is the expected scenario. The pick is correct score 3-0 at 6.00.