Argentina vs Austria 22 June 2026 Prediction

Prediction by John Rowland • Tipsters Editorial Team

The new World Cup brings back old heroes. Lionel Messi continues to carry Argentina, and his hat-trick in the opening match against Algeria (3-0) has paved the way to the knockout stage. In the second round, the South Americans face Austria, who also started the tournament with a win. The top spot in Group J is at stake in this direct encounter.

Adjusting to the Opponent

Argentina defeated Algeria in the opening round, though the lopsided score did not fully reflect the nature of the match. While Scaloni’s side significantly outperformed their opponent in expected goals (1.26 to 0.33), they capitalized on their chances with high efficiency. Much of this is due to Messi, who matched Miroslav Klose’s World Cup goal tally (16) and became the oldest player in tournament history (38 years, 357 days) to score more than once in a single match.

Against Algeria, Argentina secured an early goal (17th minute) and shifted into a controlled, defensive rhythm. The midfield trio of Mac Allister, Fernandez, and De Paul effectively disrupted the opponent's tempo. However, Austria, under Ralf Rangnick, plays a high-intensity pressing game, requiring adjustments. Argentina will need to increase their pace and move the ball forward more rapidly to bypass pressure and exploit the high defensive line the Austrians are likely to employ.

Scaloni is unlikely to make sweeping changes, but tactical adjustments are expected. While Lisandro Martinez paired with Romero in the opening match, Nicolas Otamendi may return to the starting XI to provide more aerial presence against the physical Austrian side. Additionally, Julian Alvarez could start in place of Lautaro Martinez; his speed and ability to exploit space behind the defensive line are valuable assets against a high defensive block.

A Difficult Start for Austria

Austria defeated Jordan (3-1) in their opener, but the match against the group underdog was far from simple. With the score level in the 76th minute, Jordan conceded an own goal, and the third goal came from a penalty in stoppage time. Rangnick’s side generated 1.69 xG (with roughly half coming from a penalty) compared to 0.46 for their opponent. While Austria limited Jordan’s chances, their own attacking output was lackluster; the three goals were more a product of fortune than tactical quality.

Rangnick’s structure is built on gegenpressing, but Jordan employed a low defensive block, which proved problematic. Austria struggled in positional attack, often resorting to predictable crosses. Against Argentina, the stylistic matchup may be more favorable, as the Austrians will have opportunities to use their primary weapon—counter-pressing. The challenge lies in stifling Argentina’s talented midfield trio without overcommitting, as the Argentines will look for space to punish any defensive lapses.

Major rotations from Rangnick are unlikely. Given that Kalajdzic and Arnautovic offered little in the opener, the mobile Gregoritsch (4 goals in 8 qualifiers) deserves a starting opportunity. With right-back Posch injured, Laimer is expected to shift to the flank, with Grillitsch entering the midfield.

Predicted Lineup

Argentina (4-3-3): E. Martinez – Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Medina – Mac Allister, De Paul, Fernandez – Messi, Alvarez, Almada

Out: Balerdi (injury), Tagliafico (doubtful)

Manager: Lionel Scaloni

Austria (4-2-3-1): A. Schlager – Laimer, Lienhart, Alaba, Mwene – Seiwald, K. Schlager – Schmid, Sabitzer, Grillitsch – Gregoritsch

Out: Baumgartner, Posch (both injury)

Manager: Ralf Rangnick

Referee: Amin Mohamed Omar (Egypt)

The referee maintains a high threshold for physical play but is strict regarding misconduct. Over his last 20 matches, he has averaged 4.2 yellow cards and 22.75 fouls.

Argentina vs Austria Prediction: Austria Not to Lose

• Main Prediction: Argentina is on an eight-match winning streak, but Algeria was the only notably tough opponent in that stretch. The opening round scoreline was largely driven by individual brilliance from Messi rather than systematic dominance. Conversely, Austria is on a six-match unbeaten run. Stylistically, Rangnick’s pressing setup is uncomfortable for the world champions, as it will prevent them from maintaining their preferred tempo. Considering the group standings, Austria needs a result here to remain in a favorable position for their final match against Algeria. Selection: Austria Not to Lose at 2.41. Correct score prediction: 1-1.
• Total Goals Prediction: The stakes are high, but a scoreless draw is unlikely. Austria has scored in each of their last six matches, and their pressing model should create chances. However, their defensive vulnerability will be exposed by the movement of Alvarez and the vision of Messi (who has scored in five consecutive World Cup games). Selection: Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.95.