Bulgaria vs Estonia 29 September 2026 Prediction

Bulgaria opened its Nations League campaign with a 2-1 home loss to Luxembourg. Estonia, meanwhile, earned a 1-1 draw away to Iceland. Bulgaria is favored in this matchup, but another difficult game is possible.

Bulgaria's Key Absences

Bulgaria's loss to Luxembourg was a close game. Both teams had seven shots on target, while expected goals were nearly even at 1.27 to 1.28. Aleksandar Dimitrov's side took the lead through Chandarov, who scored from Velkovski's pass. Barreiro equalized before halftime, and Thill scored Luxembourg's winner in the second half.

It was Bulgaria's eighth defeat in its last nine competitive matches. Several important players are unavailable. Bozhinov, a center back with Pisa, is with the U21 squad. The midfield is missing Krastev of Zwolle and Chochev of Ludogorets, both recent regulars for the senior team.

Bulgaria is also without PAOK forward Kiril Despodov, who is injured and has yet to play this season. He has scored 15 goals in 60 senior international appearances. Lukas Petkov started up front against Luxembourg after recording a goal and an assist in four 2. Bundesliga games for Elversberg. He managed one shot, which missed the target, and five touches in the opposition penalty area over 90 minutes.

Estonia's Defensive Approach

Estonia's draw in Iceland followed a solid run of results. Since the end of World Cup qualifying, Estonia has played five friendlies, beating Cyprus 4-2, the Faroe Islands 1-0 and Lithuania 1-0. It also drew 1-1 with Kenya and lost 2-0 to Rwanda. Manager Jürgen Henn's team carried that form into its Nations League opener.

Estonia could have won in Reykjavik, but Palumets missed a penalty early in the second half. The visitors remained competitive against a stronger opponent: Iceland led 8-5 in shots on target, while expected goals were almost identical at 1.39 to 1.38. Estonia conceded possession, used long passes to attack quickly and held Iceland to one goal.

Defense is a strength of this Estonia squad. Hein has become Werder Bremen's first-choice goalkeeper this season. He made seven saves against Iceland. Bochum center back Mets is another key player. Fellow center back Paskotsi scored the equalizer in Reykjavik, assisted by right back Peetson.

Bulgaria vs Estonia Predicted Lineup

Bulgaria (4-5-1): Naumov; Turitsov, K. Dimitrov, T. Ivanov, Velkovski; Rusev, Tsenov, Gruev, Chandarov, Z. Dimitrov; Petkov.

Unavailable: Bozhinov, Chochev, Despodov, Krastev (all omitted from the squad).

Manager: Aleksandar Dimitrov.

Estonia (5-4-1): Hein; Schjønning-Larsen, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Mets, Peetson; Käit, Palumets, Poom, Ainsalu; Mustmaa.

Unavailable: Sinyavskiy, Sappinen, Anier, Shein, Paalberg, Varjund (all omitted from the squad).

Manager: Jürgen Henn.

Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili (Georgia).

Across his last 14 matches, Kikacheishvili has averaged 3.57 yellow cards and 23.53 fouls per game. He has shown three red cards and awarded three penalties in that span.

Bulgaria vs Estonia Prediction: Estonia Double Chance (X2) at 2.28

Main pick: Bulgaria has lost eight of its last nine competitive matches. Although several of those games were against strong opponents, the defeats also include losses to Ireland, Georgia and Luxembourg. Key absences further weaken the squad. Estonia came from behind to draw in Iceland and has lost only one of its five friendlies since World Cup qualifying. Estonia double chance (X2) at 2.28.

Goals pick: Bulgaria has conceded in 15 of its last 16 matches, including friendlies. Luxembourg put seven shots on target and scored twice in the Nations League opener. Estonia scored against Iceland and missed a penalty that could have given it a second goal. It has also scored in eight of its last nine matches, including friendlies against Italy and Norway. Estonia over 0.5 team goals at 1.90.