Luxembourg vs Iceland 29 September 2026 Prediction

  Prediction by   Gevorg Danielyan     September 27, 2026 

Luxembourg opened its Nations League campaign with a 2-1 win at Bulgaria, while Iceland drew 1-1 at home against Estonia. Iceland failed to beat Luxembourg in either of their Euro 2024 qualifiers. Can the visitors change that and claim their first win of 2026?

Luxembourg Enters in Good Form

Luxembourg hosts Iceland after a comeback win in its opening match. Jeff Strasser’s team fell behind against Bulgaria, but Leandro Barreiro equalized before halftime and Vincent Thill scored the winner in the second half. The three points give Luxembourg a strong start in its bid for a top-two finish in the group.

The result follows a solid run against comparable opponents. Before the Nations League began, Luxembourg beat Albania 1-0 and Malta twice, 3-0 and 2-0. Its only loss in the previous five matches was a 1-0 defeat to Italy. Center back Seid Korac was injured before the squad assembled, and midfielder Christopher Martins, who has 83 international appearances, was also left out because of injury. Luxembourg won its opener despite those absences.

Iceland Remains Winless

Iceland began its Nations League campaign with a 1-1 home draw against Estonia. It led at halftime but conceded after the break and could not find a winner. Before the tournament, Iceland lost to Argentina 3-0 and Japan 1-0, following draws with Haiti, 1-1, and Canada, 2-2. Iceland has played six matches this year without a win.

Scoring has been a problem: Iceland has managed three goals in those six games. Against Estonia, only one of its 19 shots was on target. Injuries have also limited manager Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s options. Defender Sverrir Ingason, midfielders Kristian Hlynsson and Andri Baldursson, and goalkeeper Elias Olafsson are unavailable. Albert Gudmundsson is questionable after picking up an injury in the previous match. Ingason’s absence is a particular concern for the defense.

Luxembourg vs Iceland Predicted Lineup

Luxembourg (4-2-3-1): Maurice; Jans, Mahmutovic, Carlson, Bohnert; Barreiro, Cruz; Thill, Sinani, Dardari; Kadamani

Unavailable: Korac, Martins, Sanches (not in squad)

Manager: Jeff Strasser

Iceland (4-4-2): Valdimarsson; Palsson, Thordarson, Gretarsson, Ellertsson; Thorsteinsson, Johannesson, Haraldsson, Thorvaldsson; Oskarsson, Gudjohnsen

Unavailable: Olafsson, Ingason, Hlynsson, Baldursson (not in squad); Gudmundsson (questionable)

Manager: Arnar Gunnlaugsson

Luxembourg vs Iceland Prediction: Luxembourg or Draw (Double Chance)

Main pick: Luxembourg beat Iceland 3-1 at home in Euro 2024 qualifying and drew 1-1 in Reykjavik. It also has fewer key absences for this meeting. Iceland is missing several regulars and is winless in seven straight matches, while Luxembourg comes in off a comeback victory over Bulgaria. The pick is Luxembourg or draw (double chance) at 1.64.

Totals pick: Iceland has struggled to create and convert chances, with only four shots on target across its last six matches. Luxembourg’s recent results include a 1-0 win over Albania and a 1-0 loss to Italy. With Iceland missing several important players, under 2.5 goals at 1.72 is also worth considering.