Slovakia vs Kazakhstan 29 September 2026 Prediction

Slovakia opened its Nations League campaign with a win and moved into first place in Group C3, where it entered as the favorite. It now hosts Kazakhstan in Košice. John van 't Schip's team had to work for a draw in the Faroe Islands and faces a tougher away game here.

Slovakia Controls Play

Slovakia began the Nations League with a 2-0 home win over Moldova. After a difficult opening stretch, the hosts took control and scored twice before halftime. They finished with 17 shots, 1.71 expected goals (xG) and 67% possession. Moldova tried to respond after the break but managed just one shot on target and 0.41 xG. Slovakia's advantage in chances matched the scoreline.

Slovakia has kept its 4-3-3 under manager Vladimir Weiss, though Matus Bero's absence required a small adjustment. Against Moldova, Weiss built the midfield around Stanislav Lobotka and Ondrej Duda, moving Tomas Suslov into a more central role. The change helped Slovakia control the ball and move attacks forward. Weiss's team still relies on possession and plays through the middle, but it looks to get the ball into the attacking third more quickly. The same approach is likely against Kazakhstan, with Bero's absence unlikely to change the overall shape.

Kazakhstan Struggles to Create Chances

Kazakhstan opened the Nations League with a 1-1 draw in the Faroe Islands. Despite having 58% possession, the visitors produced just 10 shots and 0.39 xG. The Faroe Islands created more dangerous chances, finishing with 1.44 xG. Kazakhstan's main attacking threat came from set pieces, and Temirlan Erlanov equalized after one. Four saves from Stas Pokatilov helped preserve the draw.

Kazakhstan is still adjusting after van 't Schip's appointment in August. The 4-3-3 remains its base formation, but injuries to Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov, Islam Chesnokov and Dastan Satpayev have limited its attacking options. Against the Faroe Islands, Artur Shushenachev rarely received the ball in shooting positions. Kazakhstan will likely defend compactly against Slovakia and look to counter after winning possession. Quick moves down the wings and passes behind the defense may be more useful than sustained possession. That approach could help compensate for its difficulty creating chances against a set defense while reducing turnovers in midfield.

Slovakia vs Kazakhstan: Predicted Lineup

Slovakia (4-3-3): Greif – Schranz, Skriniar, Obert, Hancko – Suslov, Lobotka, Duda – Kapralik, Strelec, Haraslin

Unavailable: Bero, Rodak (both injured); Trusa, Rusnak (both out of the squad)

Manager: Vladimir Weiss

Kazakhstan (4-3-3): Pokatilov – Mrynskiy, Erlanov, Alip, Vorogovskiy – Karaman, Kuat, Islamkhan – Amir, Shushenachev, Kenzhebek

Unavailable: Zaynutdinov, Chesnokov, Satpayev, Kasym (all injured)

Manager: John van 't Schip

Referee: Patrik Kolaric (Croatia)

Kolaric is set to referee his first official senior international. In youth matches, he has averaged 5.8 yellow cards per game and has been strict with physical play. More than half of those matches have featured a penalty kick or a red card.

Slovakia vs Kazakhstan Prediction: Slovakia Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Slovakia controlled possession and created the better chances in its win over Moldova. Its system also looks more settled than Kazakhstan's, while the visitors are missing several attacking players. Kazakhstan has lost seven of its last 10 competitive away matches, six by at least two goals. The pick is Slovakia -1.5 at 1.91.

Goals prediction: At least three goals have been scored in four of Slovakia's last six matches and seven of Kazakhstan's last 10 competitive away games. Kazakhstan has conceded an average of three goals per game over that away stretch. An additional pick is over 2.5 goals at 2.00.