Slovenia vs North Macedonia 29 September 2026 Prediction

Slovenia and North Macedonia both failed to score in their Nations League openers. They meet in Ljubljana with each side looking for a better attacking performance, though recent results suggest a low-scoring game.

Slovenia's Defensive Strength and Attacking Problems

Missing out on the 2026 World Cup was a setback for Slovenia after a solid European Championship. Former international Boštjan Cesar has taken over as manager following Matjaž Kek's departure, but the Nations League opener exposed familiar problems. A 0-0 home draw with Scotland showed that Slovenia can contain opponents but struggle to create chances: Scotland led 2.16 to 0.48 in expected goals (xG).

Cesar kept Slovenia in a defensive 5-4-1 against Scotland. North Macedonia also prefers to defend and counterattack, so neither side is likely to be eager to control possession. If Slovenia has to build sustained attacks, breaking down an organized defense could be difficult.

Goalkeeper Jan Oblak and a back line led by Jaka Bijol remain Slovenia's strengths. The attack has a more pressing problem. Benjamin Šeško provides much of the team's physical presence and goal threat up front, and his injury leaves Slovenia without its key forward.

North Macedonia's Scoring Problems

North Macedonia opened with a 3-0 home loss to Switzerland, the group's favorite. It was a difficult first test for a squad bringing through younger players. North Macedonia will look to respond in Ljubljana.

After conceding three goals to Switzerland, North Macedonia is likely to put more emphasis on its defense. With neither team inclined to dominate possession, much of the play could take place in midfield. Winning 50-50 balls and turning them into quick counterattacks will be important for the visitors.

North Macedonia has failed to score in five consecutive matches. Eljif Elmas remains its main creative player, but he has had too little support. Creating chances against Slovenia's defense and Oblak will be another challenge.

Slovenia vs North Macedonia Predicted Lineup

Slovenia (5-4-1): Oblak; Karničnik, Brekalo, Drkušić, Bijol, Janža; Matko, Elšnik, Gnezda Čerin, Šturm; Vipotnik

Unavailable: Šeško, Bajrić, Ratnik, Zaletel, Prelec, Stojanović (all injured)

Manager: Boštjan Cesar

North Macedonia (4-4-2): Dimitrievski; Ilievski, Zajkov, Musliu, Herrera; Kostadinov, Gashtarov, Bardhi, Elmas; Miovski, Rastoder

Unavailable: Serafimov, Nikolov (injured); Churlinov (not in the squad)

Manager: Goce Sedloski

Referee: Andrea Colombo (Italy)

Colombo was among Serie A's six strictest referees last season, averaging 4.4 yellow cards and 28.13 fouls per match. He issued no red cards and awarded four penalties in 15 games. This will be his third competitive international match; he showed six and four yellow cards in the previous two.

Slovenia vs North Macedonia Prediction: North Macedonia to Win or Draw at 2.28

Main prediction: Slovenia is the favorite and has the stronger squad, but its defensive approach has made it difficult to win matches in which it is expected to control the game. Results against Cyprus (1-1) and Kosovo (0-0, 0-2) illustrate the problem. North Macedonia has struggled to score, but it has earned draws against Belgium (0-0), Kazakhstan (1-1), Ireland (0-0) and Bosnia (0-0). At the available odds, North Macedonia to win or draw (X2) at 2.28 is the pick.

Goals prediction: Slovenia has scored six goals in its last 10 matches and failed to score in six of them. North Macedonia also has six goals in 10 games, but five came in a 5-0 win over Liechtenstein. Šeško's absence further limits Slovenia's attack. Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 is the safer option; under 1.5 goals at 2.76 carries more risk.