Spain vs Croatia 29 September 2026 Prediction

Spain vs Croatia in the second round of the Nations League group stage is a rematch of the 2023 final. Spain won that game on penalties after a 0-0 draw through 120 minutes. Unai Simón saved two spot kicks, and Luis de la Fuente won his first trophy as Spain manager. Both remain in their roles three years later.

Spain Opens With a Win at Wembley

Spain opened its Nations League campaign with a 3-2 away win over England. De la Fuente’s side trailed at halftime after conceding twice, more goals than it allowed throughout the World Cup. Spain pressed effectively after the break and scored twice following turnovers in England’s half. Its 53% possession share was lower than usual, but Spain is likely to spend more time on the ball at home against Croatia.

Spain has few significant absences. Pedro Porro is the only regular starter sidelined, with Marc Pubill available at right back. Changes from the Wembley lineup are still expected. Fermín López, who missed the World Cup through injury, has four goals and two assists for Barcelona this season. Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal could also start after coming off the bench and scoring against England.

Croatia Begins With a Win

Croatia beat the Czech Republic 2-1 in Prague in its Nations League opener. In Slaven Bilić’s first match back as manager, Croatia created several chances through sustained attacks and led the expected-goals count 1.85 to 0.93. The game at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán should require a different approach, with Croatia likely to spend more time defending.

Martin Baturina could be useful on the counterattack. The Como attacking midfielder has two goals and one assist in Serie A this season, plus a goal and an assist in the Champions League opener. He missed the Czech Republic game through illness but is expected to return against Spain. Veterans Ivan Perišić and Luka Modrić remain key players for Croatia, and both contributed to goals in the Nations League opener.

Spain vs Croatia Predicted Lineup

Spain (4-2-3-1): Simón; Pubill, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, F. López, Baena; Oyarzabal

Unavailable: Porro, J. García, E. García (all injured)

Manager: Luis de la Fuente

Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Perišić; Kovačić, Modrić; Vlašić, P. Sučić, Baturina; Budimir

Unavailable: Erlić, Juranović (both injured)

Manager: Slaven Bilić

Referee: Serdar Gözübüyük (Netherlands)

Gözübüyük has shown 38 yellow cards across his last seven international matches, an average of 5.43 per game. He has awarded two penalties in his previous 17 national-team matches.

Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Croatia Handicap +1.5

Main prediction: Spain is unbeaten in 39 matches, but a win by two or more goals is less certain. Croatia has not suffered a heavy defeat in more than two years and has lost by more than one goal in just one of its last 13 competitive matches. Spain, meanwhile, has beaten a FIFA top-20 opponent by at least two goals in only one of its last 11 such games. The pick is Croatia +1.5 at 2.27.

Goals prediction: England generated 1.77 expected goals against Spain and scored twice. Croatia has scored in each of its last six matches, so both teams to score: Yes at 2.17 is also worth considering.