Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets 1 May 2026 Prediction

In many ways, this is the key game of the series. A short-handed Minnesota team hosts Denver in what will be the Timberwolves’ final home game of the matchup and their best realistic chance to close the series early. But the favorite is not the home team. The Nuggets have momentum and can see a path back into the series.

Minnesota Is Struggling Without Edwards

Minnesota did not offer much resistance in Game 5, losing 125-113. Without DiVincenzo and Edwards, the Timberwolves had limited room for error on the road. The next game should show whether they saved energy for their home matchup or simply ran out of options.

McDaniels played below his usual level, while Gobert gave Jokic too much freedom. The most reliable player for the home team remains Randle.

Note: The American forward has scored at least 15 points in every game of the series.

Minnesota Predicted Lineup: Shannon Jr. — Dosunmu, McDaniels — Randle, Gobert

Out: DiVincenzo, Edwards (both injured)

Manager: Chris Finch

Denver Won Game 5 Convincingly

David Adelman’s team took control from the opening minutes and led by 22 points before the fourth quarter. Jokic produced another routine triple-double with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists. He also received strong support from Murray, who scored 24 points, and Jones, who added 20 while replacing Gordon.

According to early reports, Gordon may also miss Game 6. Watson remains out and has not played in the playoffs. Jokic, Denver’s Serbian center, remains the key player for the Nuggets.

Note: Nikola Jokic has scored at least 24 points in five games of the series against the Timberwolves.

Denver Predicted Lineup: Murray — Christian Braun, Johnson — Jones, Jokic

Out: Watson (injury)

Manager: David Adelman

The Nuggets Have Moved Ahead in the Season Series

Denver now has five wins in nine meetings with Minnesota this season. At Target Center, the head-to-head record is even at 2-2.

Minnesota vs Denver Prediction: Denver -4.5 at 1.75

Main pick: The Timberwolves will likely put everything into this home game, but the series has started to move Denver’s way. Minnesota’s injuries are clearly affecting the team’s level. Over a full game, Shannon Jr. and Dosunmu cannot fully replace players like DiVincenzo and Edwards. Jokic has also raised his level, and Game 5 was his best performance of the series. Murray has been steady throughout the matchup as well. The pick is Denver -4.5 at 1.75.

Total pick: The last two games in Minnesota were low-scoring, with neither matchup going above 209 points. Given the home team’s injury issues, the Timberwolves can stay competitive only through tighter defense, so another high total looks unlikely. Gobert is still available and should be fully focused on limiting Jokic. Denver also needs to stay disciplined defensively, as mistakes could be costly. A cautious game from both sides points to under 227.5 at 1.74.

Higher-odds pick: This is a spot where a tied quarter is worth considering. There have been no tied quarters in the series yet, but several quarters have been decided by three points or fewer. In the two games played in Minnesota, four 12-minute periods were decided by a narrow margin. Total tied quarters over 0.5 at 4.00 is an interesting high-odds option.