San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder 29 May 2026 Prediction

A few days ago, the Thunder played their worst playoff game since 2020, losing Game 4 to the Spurs in all key areas (82-103). But in Game 5, Oklahoma City returned to its usual championship level and earned a convincing win (127-114). Can the young Spurs handle the pressure in the next matchup, now that they no longer have room for error?

Have Wembanyama’s Big Games Run Out?

The Spurs have reasons to question the officiating, but the fact is that from late in the second quarter onward, they were simply the weaker team and trailed by at least 8 points until the final buzzer. On that night, a not fully healthy Fox struggled badly with 9 points on 4-of-15 shooting, while key contributor Vassell had only 6 points on 2-of-11 shooting. Wembanyama also had his worst performance of the series against the Thunder, finishing with 8 rebounds and 20 points while making only 4 of 15 shots. The main support for the French star remains second-year guard Castle, who is handling the individual matchup against Gilgeous-Alexander.

Stephon has recorded at least 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists in 4 of his last 5 games.

San Antonio Predicted Lineup: Fox — Castle, Vassell — Champagnie, Wembanyama

Will not play: Jones-Garcia (injury)

Manager: Mitch Johnson

Oklahoma City Adjusted Well and Added New Looks

It was telling that the Thunder finished Game 5 with a +8 point differential while Shai was resting and Victor was on the floor. That means manager Daigneault found another way to trouble a San Antonio team that depends heavily on Wembanyama, who was limited on both ends of the floor. The frontcourt pairing of Holmgren and Hartenstein stood out in particular: they dominated the game, combining for 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting, 26 rebounds, and 5 assists. Oklahoma City will clearly travel to Texas looking to close out the series, especially given its strong road numbers: 30-10 in the regular season and 5-1 in the playoffs. Caruso remains a real X-factor off the bench.

Alex has scored at least 15 points in 4 of 5 games against San Antonio, while shooting 48% from three-point range.

Oklahoma City Predicted Lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander — Dort, Jalen Williams — Holmgren, Hartenstein

Will not play: Sorber (injury)

Manager: Mark Daigneault

What to Know

• San Antonio has won the third quarter in 10 of its last 12 games.
• Oklahoma City has allowed no more than 51 first-half points in 4 of 5 games in this series against the Spurs.

The Thunder Are Ahead Again in a Physical Series

It has become clear that the regular season no longer matters in this matchup, even though the Spurs won 4 of 5 head-to-head games before the playoffs. Once the postseason began, the defending champions raised their level and now lead the series 3-2.

San Antonio vs Oklahoma City Prediction: Oklahoma City to Win With a (+3.5) Handicap at 1.85

• Main prediction: In San Antonio’s 2 wins in this series, Wembanyama posted 41+24 in Game 1 and 33+8 in Game 4. However, the Thunder have managed to neutralize the French star in 2 of the last 3 games, earning deserved wins by 123-108 and 127-114. That is a major warning sign for San Antonio because of its clear dependence on Victor. Both teams can defend at a high level, but Oklahoma City is much more stable offensively thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and playmaking, as well as the quality around him. In the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs are shooting only 42.5% from the field, while the Thunder are close to 45%. It is hard to rely on another huge Wembanyama game in Game 6, so Shai and company look like the stronger option because of their experience. The pick is Oklahoma City to win with a (+3.5) handicap at 1.85. 
• Total prediction: The Spurs are unlikely to keep pace offensively with the Thunder, who are still missing important players such as JDub and Mitchell. Johnson’s team may sacrifice some offense and prioritize defense, similar to Game 4 (103-82). Oklahoma City has also allowed no more than 110 points in 10 of 13 playoff games without overtime. One option is San Antonio team total under 110.5 at 1.90. 
• High-odds prediction: In Game 5, the teams scored 65 points in the third quarter, even though the second quarter produced 71. Since the start of this series, the stretch right after halftime has been the most productive in terms of scoring. We will follow that trend with highest-scoring quarter — third quarter at 3.25.