Norway vs Latvia 28 May 2026 Prediction

Both teams are rare playoff visitors. However, at this tournament, both national teams have repeatedly exceeded expectations and beaten some of world hockey’s top sides. Latvia came out stronger in overtime in two recent friendlies, but Norway has a good chance to get revenge in the quarterfinals.

Surprise Team of the Tournament

Norway has reached the World Championship playoffs for the first time since 2012. The team looked strong not only against opponents of similar level, but also against top national teams. Petter Thoresen’s team kept surprising: it scored five goals against Canada and lost only in overtime, then beat both Sweden and Czech Republic. In the previous game, Norway created problems for itself by allowing Denmark to erase a two-goal deficit, but quickly finished the job in overtime — 4-3. Norway became one of the highest-scoring teams in Group B, largely thanks to its young talent. Noah Steen and Tinus Koblar are among the tournament’s top goal scorers, with five goals each.

Norway Predicted Lineup: Haukeland (Normann) – Kåsastul, Krogdahl – Martinsen, Koblar, Brandsegg-Nygård

Full Roster: defensemen – Solberg, Johannesen, Østby, Hurrod, Danielsen; forwards – Vesterheim, Bakke Olsen, Olsen, Pettersen, E. Salsten, Rønnild, Steen, H. Salsten, Berglund, Eriksen

Manager: Petter Thoresen

Finishing the Group Stage on a High Note

Latvia also made noise in the group stage, reaching the playoffs from third place and finishing ahead of the United States and Germany. After a strong win over the United States, everything went smoothly: Latvia beat Great Britain and Hungary without major problems. In those games, the team showed strong finishing, averaging six goals per game. Latvia did not generate a high number of shots, but converted its chances very well — 21.2% of its shots on goal became goals. Rudolfs Balcers stood out in particular, scoring in six of seven World Championship games. However, Harijs Vitolins’s team should face more resistance in the quarterfinal than it did against the underdogs.

Latvia Predicted Lineup: Gudlevskis (Grigals) – Smits, Cibulskis – Vilmanis, Smirnovs, Balcers

Full Roster: defensemen – Freibergs, Ansons, Zile, Mamcics, Tumanovs; forwards – Tralmaks, Egle, Dzierkals, Krastenbergs, Batna, Andersons, Skrastins, Prohorenkovs, Lapinskis

Manager: Harijs Vitolins

These Teams Usually Keep It Close

In four of the last five head-to-head meetings, the winner was decided only after regulation. Their May games during World Championship preparation were no exception. In the first meeting, Sandis Vilmanis scored twice to give Latvia a 3-2 overtime win, and in the second game Latvia was stronger in the shootout — 4-3. This matchup should be just as competitive.

What You Need to Know

• In 4 of Norway’s 7 games at the World Championship, its opponents recorded no more than 25 shots on goal.
• Latvia has not won the third period in 5 of its last 7 games.
• Thoresen’s team did not allow a first-period goal in 4 of its last 6 games.

Norway vs Latvia Prediction: Norway to Win at 1.85

• Main prediction: We believe Norway can surprise again and reach the next round. The draw is favorable, as Latvia is roughly on the same level. Norway’s main edge may be its more reliable defense: at this tournament, the team has allowed only 1.9 goals per game in regulation, while Latvia has allowed 2.4. Thoresen’s team also defended well even against top opponents, allowing only one goal to Czech Republic and two to Sweden. Latvia, meanwhile, suffered a heavy loss to Finland, allowing seven goals. That makes Norway to win at 1.85 the pick. The projected correct score is 4-3.
• Total goals prediction: As in the most recent head-to-head meeting, which produced six goals in regulation, these teams could deliver another productive game. Latvia’s games at this World Championship have averaged 5.9 goals. The pick is over 4.5 goals at 1.76.
• Power-play goals prediction: Games involving both teams have often featured successful power-play chances. At least two power-play goals were scored in three of the last four games for both Norway and Latvia. A good option is over 1.5 power-play goals.