Finland vs Czech Republic 28 May 2026 Prediction

Finland moved through the group stage confidently, losing only once, and is now targeting its first World Championship gold since 2022. Czech Republic has just as much motivation: the Lions lifted the trophy a few years ago and are aiming to compete for the title again. The bookmakers clearly favor Finland, although the gap in quality between the teams does not look that large.

Finland’s First Loss

Finland still had a chance to finish first before the final round of the group stage, but lost 4-2 to Switzerland in a direct battle for the top spot. That remains Suomi’s only defeat at this World Championship. Finland looked especially strong against the reigning champion, the United States. The Northern European side left the Americans with little chance, earning a convincing 6-2 win. Justus Annunen was one of the key players in that game, stopping more than 93% of the shots he faced. The Nashville goalie maintained a high level in the next matchup against Latvia as well, a 7-1 win. Finland’s penalty kill also deserves attention: Antti Pennanen’s team has allowed only two goals while playing 4-on-5 across the entire tournament.

Finland Predicted Lineup: Annunen (Korpisalo) – Heinola, Jokiharju – Granlund, Barkov, Helenius

Full Roster: defensemen – Lehtonen, Saarijarvi, Maatta, Matinpalo, Seppala; forwards – Manninen, Lundell, Puljujarvi, Puistola, Raty, Hameenaho, Maenalanen, Bjorninen, Merela, Kuokkanen

Out: Teravainen (injury)

Manager: Antti Pennanen

Czech Republic Dropped Points Against Underdogs

Before the World Championship, Czech Republic was fairly considered one of the favorites in Group B, but Radim Rulik’s team was not as consistent as many expected. In the end, the Lions reached the playoffs only from third place after several disappointing results against underdogs. The game against Slovenia at least went to overtime, which gave Czech Republic one point in a 3-2 loss, but the team left the ice empty-handed after a 4-1 defeat to Norway. The loss to Canada was also painful. Czech Republic led by two goals in the second period, but could not protect the advantage or move back into second place in the standings, losing 3-2.

Czech Republic Predicted Lineup: Korenar (Pavlat) – Kempny, Hronek – Cervenka, Sedlak, Kaut

Full Roster: defensemen – Hajek, Cibulka, Tichacek, Alscher, Galvas; forwards – Kubalik, Tomasek, Flek, Vozenilek, Melovsky, Blumel, Beranek, Cernoch, Hmelar, Kovarcik

Manager: Radim Rulik

The Nominal Home Team Usually Wins

There is an interesting trend in head-to-head games between Finland and Czech Republic. In five of their last six meetings, the team listed as the home side won. Before the World Championship, Suomi beat Czech Republic 3-2 in a game played during the Swedish stage of the Euro Hockey Tour. Mikko Lehtonen scored the decisive goal on the power play.

What You Need to Know

• Finland does not have any players among the tournament’s top 10 scorers.
• Suomi led after the first period in 5 of 7 group-stage games.
• Czech Republic failed to convert on the power play in 5 of its 7 tournament games.

Finland vs Czech Republic Prediction: Finland to Win With a (-1.5) Handicap at 1.81

• Main prediction: Czech Republic did not impress in the group stage. The team that won the title a couple of years ago lost to Slovenia and Norway, opponents that usually fight to stay up rather than to make the playoffs. Finland, meanwhile, played the first part of the tournament almost perfectly, beating the United States convincingly and handling the weaker teams without much trouble. The Northern European side also won the most recent head-to-head meeting. With that in mind, the pick is Finland to win with a (-1.5) handicap at 1.81. For a higher-risk option, the projected correct score is 4-2.
• Total goals prediction: Strong offense has been Finland’s main competitive edge at this tournament. Suomi scored 29 goals in the group stage, one of the best marks at the World Championship. Czech Republic’s defensive play, however, is harder to praise: Rulik’s team allowed four goals to modest Norway and conceded three times against both Sweden and Canada. The logical option is Finland team total over 3.5 goals at 2.15.
• Power-play goals prediction: Pennanen’s team has been excellent on the penalty kill, with only Switzerland and the United States managing to punish Finland for penalties. Czech Republic has also been strong at 4-on-5, shutting down the power plays of Canada, Norway, Italy, and Slovakia. The pick is under 1.5 power-play goals.