Norway vs Slovenia 17 May 2026 Prediction

This year, both national teams can compete for a top-six finish in Group B, so this head-to-head matchup has major standings importance. Norway has won the last six meetings, and this time its roster also looks stronger than Slovenia’s. Can the nominal hosts extend their winning streak, or will Slovenia manage to surprise in this matchup?

Fighting to Stay in the Top Division

A year ago, Norway narrowly kept its place in the top division of the World Championship by finishing sixth in Group B. After that, Norway did not perform well in the Nations League and failed to show much in recent friendlies. The team lost three of four games, falling to Denmark 3-1 and twice to Latvia, 3-2 in overtime and 4-3 in a shootout. Of course, Tobias Johansson’s team lost only once in regulation during that stretch, but the opposition was not especially strong either. In only one of those games did Norway manage to score three goals, showing poor finishing.

Norway Predicted Lineup: Haukeland (Arnkvarn) – Kåsastul, Engebroten – Solem, Salsten, Olsen

Full Roster: defensemen – Danielsen, Johannesen, Ostby, Hurrod, Vasenden, Kopperstad; forwards – Westerheim, Bakke Olsen, Eriksen, Pettersen, Koblar, Martinsen, Elvsveen, Salsten, Berglund

Manager: Tobias Johansson 

Trying to Start the Tournament Well

A year ago, Slovenia managed to gain momentum at the World Championship only near the end of the group stage, so this time it will try to start well right away. Slovenia also had a solid Nations League campaign. However, in its last four friendlies, the team won only twice, beating Poland 3-2 and Hungary 3-2. During that stretch, Slovenia allowed 13 goals, which points to clear defensive issues. It is worth noting that the team has been strong in second periods, scoring in that frame in four straight games. Forward Marcel Mahkovec stood out during that run, scoring three goals.

Slovenia Predicted Lineup: Horak (Us) — Gregorc, Persic — Mahkovec, Torok, Sever

Full Roster: defensemen — Stebih, Urukalo, Krnovic, Magovac, Bohic, Podrekar; forwards — Ogrensek, Maver, Crnkic, Jezovsek, Sitar, Kuralt, Sodja, Bericic, Langus

Manager: Edo Terglav 

Slovenia Is Looking for Revenge

The last time these teams met was at the World Championship three years ago. Norway won that game 1-0. Thomas Berg-Paulsen scored the only goal, while Henrik Haukeland recorded the shutout and is expected to protect Norway’s net again. The upcoming matchup may also be low-scoring, as both teams badly need points.

Norway vs Slovenia Prediction: Norway to Win at 1.77

• Main Pick: Norway has not lost in regulation in its last three games, which suggests decent form. The team has also beaten Slovenia in each of the last six head-to-head meetings. Slovenia, meanwhile, did not look especially convincing in recent friendlies and even struggled against Poland. We expect the nominal hosts to beat this opponent again and extend their head-to-head winning streak to seven games. The pick is Norway to win at 1.77. A possible exact score is 3-1.
• Total Pick: In three of the last four games involving both teams, there were no more than five total goals. This low scoring is partly explained by the lack of high-end attacking talent on both rosters. The previous head-to-head meeting produced only one goal, so an open game should not be expected here either. Because of that, the pick is Under 5.5 Goals at 1.80.
• Power-Play Goals Pick: Both teams have struggled to convert on the power play because they lack elite offensive talent. For that reason, Norway has failed to score at 5-on-4 in its last five games, while Slovenia has done the same in its last two. The interesting option is Under 0.5 power-play goals.

The prediction will be updated and expanded after the Slovakia vs Norway and Slovenia vs Czech Republic games are completed.