Finland vs USA 18 May 2026 Prediction

Finland has not dropped a point yet after winning its first two games. However, the upcoming matchup should be one of its toughest of the tournament, as the opponent is the defending world champion and Olympic winner. Will the Lions strengthen their position in the standings, or will the USA prove stronger even with a less-than-ideal roster?

Finland Is in Good Shape

The Swedish stage of the Euro Hockey Tour, held shortly before the World Championship, was a strong test. Finland finished first there, beating the Czech Republic and Sweden, and became the highest-scoring team. The team also carried that momentum into this tournament. Strong power-play execution helped Finland beat Germany 3-1, while Hungary caused very few problems in a 4-1 win. Jesse Puljujarvi scored twice in that game. The goalies also looked confident in those matches, stopping 92.6% of shots on goal. However, they should have more work to do in this matchup.

Finland Predicted Lineup: Korpisalo (Sateri) – Heinola, Vaakanainen – Manninen, Barkov, Puljujarvi

Full Roster: defensemen – Lehtonen, Jokiharju, Maatta, Matinpalo, Saariyarvi; forwards – Puistola, Lundell, Hameenaho, Kuokkanen, Raty, Erholtz, Maenalanen, Bjorninen, Merela

Manager: Antti Pennanen

The USA Is Not Fully Committed to This Tournament

The USA won the World Championship last season. However, repeating that success will be difficult because the current roster is weaker. Despite having NHL players, the coaching staff has also given chances to players from the AHL and NCAA. In addition, the team played only one friendly against Germany before the tournament. Because of that, it was not surprising that the Americans lost to Switzerland, last year’s finalist. The team’s 14-game winning streak ended because of poor finishing. With 20 shots on goal, only Alex Steeves managed to score, just as he had against Germany. 

USA Predicted Lineup: Wall (Cooley) – LaCombe, Faulk – Plante, Coronato, Leonard

Full Roster: defensemen – Lindgren, Borgen, Kaiser, Clifton, Ufko; forwards – Moore, Novak, Howard, Steeves, Sasson, Olivier, Hagens, Lafferty, Cotter, Nelson

Manager: Don Granato

Time to Remember the Recent Past

In 2021 and 2022, Finland handled this opponent well and won three straight head-to-head games. However, the USA is now on a similar winning run in this matchup. Last season, the Americans eliminated the Lions in the World Championship quarterfinals thanks to a Conor Garland double, winning 5-2. But Antti Pennanen’s team has a chance for revenge, as the opponent does not have many star players at this tournament.

Finland vs USA Prediction: Finland to Win at 1.89

• Main Pick: The Lions have again brought a competitive roster to the World Championship, which cannot fully be said about the Americans, who do not appear to be placing the same importance on this tournament. Of the Olympic champions, only Matthew Tkachuk made it to Switzerland. The USA has also had recent finishing issues against top national teams, which could benefit Finland. Against Switzerland, the Americans scored only once in regulation. Finland’s defense has looked solid in mid-May, allowing only one goal in three straight games. The pick is Finland to win at 1.89. For a higher-risk option, a possible exact score is 4-3.
• Total Pick: Last year, head-to-head games consistently produced seven total goals. The teams can be productive again this time. It is also worth noting that at least six goals were scored in five of the USA’s last eight games. The pick is Over 5.5 Goals at 2.00.
• Power-Play Goals Pick: The Lions have looked strong with the man advantage. Pennanen’s team has scored on the power play in seven straight games. Finland has also scored this way in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. The option to consider is Finland team total power-play goals over 0.5.

The prediction will be updated and expanded after the Great Britain vs USA game is completed.