Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators 21 September 2026 Prediction

Montreal completed its rebuild some time ago and has been considered a Stanley Cup Final contender for several seasons. Ottawa is still some way from that level. The Senators also lost their captain and had an underwhelming offseason. At home, the Canadiens will look to confirm their status as one of the Eastern Conference’s top teams, while Ottawa will try to respond after losing the recent head-to-head series.

Strong Start to the Preseason

Martin St. Louis’ team opened the preseason with two wins over Toronto. The Canadiens earned a 4-1 road victory before beating the same opponent 4-3 in overtime at home. In Quebec, Russian forward Ivan Demidov scored on the power play, converting a pass from Lane Hutson and beating Artur Akhtyamov.

Montreal also strengthened its roster during the offseason. Chris Kreider arrived from Anaheim after recording 50 points, including 22 goals and 28 assists, last season. Defenseman Ethan Samson joined from the Tampa Bay organization after producing 14 points, with five goals and nine assists, in 30 AHL games. Montreal also selected Gleb Pugachev, a big forward from Torpedo, with the 26th overall pick in the draft. He could eventually form part of a promising Russian group in Quebec.

Ottawa Loses Its Captain

Ottawa lost one of its leaders after the 2025-26 season. Captain Brady Tkachuk decided to leave Ontario for Sunrise and reunite with his brother. The American finished the regular season with 59 points, including 22 goals and 37 assists, and a plus-4 rating. He ranked third on the team in scoring.

The signing of William Eklund, one of San Jose’s top players in 2025-26, should help the Senators replace some of Tkachuk’s production. The Swedish forward recorded 55 points, including 15 goals and 38 assists, the previous season. Ottawa also selected another Scandinavian player, Jonas Lagerberg Høn, with the 25th overall pick in the first round of the 2026 draft. He has little experience at the senior level so far.

Montreal Won the Season Series

Montreal and Ottawa met four times last season. Two of those games required overtime, with the Canadiens winning 4-3 and 6-5. The Senators’ only victory in the 2025-26 regular-season series came on the road by a 5-2 score. Both Montreal goals in that loss came on the power play, with Juraj Slafkovsky and Nick Suzuki finding the net.

Montreal vs Ottawa Prediction: Montreal to Win

Main prediction: The game will be played in Quebec, giving the Canadiens home-ice advantage. Montreal has also had time to get into game shape, winning its first two preseason contests with different lineups. Ottawa, meanwhile, will be playing its first game since the offseason. St. Louis’ team has won three of its last five home meetings with the Senators, so the main selection is Montreal to win.

Goals prediction: Montreal scored seven regulation goals across its two preseason games against Toronto. Its defense was less convincing, allowing three goals at home. Three of the last four meetings between Ottawa and Montreal produced at least seven combined goals. The secondary selection is over 5.5 goals.