Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie Colgan 31 July 2026 Prediction

The main event of the PFL card in New York features the promotion’s established champion against an undefeated 31-year-old contender. Usman Nurmagomedov is the reigning lightweight champion and the No. 1-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the PFL. Khabib Nurmagomedov’s second cousin is riding a 21-fight unbeaten streak and has looked convincing in his recent appearances.

Archie Colgan is also undefeated, with 10 of his 13 professional wins coming in major promotions. Can the American pull off the upset, or will Nurmagomedov successfully defend his title?

Usman Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov joined Bellator and earned four wins before defeating Patricky Freire to claim the lightweight title. He then won four more fights, although his victory over Brent Primus was overturned after a positive drug test. The Russian retained his belt in a competitive fight against Paul Hughes and also won the rematch, becoming the undisputed PFL champion after the promotion acquired Bellator. Nurmagomedov has already defended the new title once, earning a convincing victory over Alfie Davis.

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter. On the feet, he controls distance effectively and relies mainly on kicks and straight combinations. He takes few unnecessary risks and is difficult to hit, although he can be less comfortable at close range. His high kicking volume can affect his cardio in the later rounds. He completes takedowns through conventional double-leg entries and trips, then prioritizes positional control on the ground.

Titles: Bellator MMA lightweight champion (2022, three defenses) and PFL lightweight champion (2025, one defense)

Archie Colgan

Colgan remains undefeated as a professional. His recent record is particularly impressive, with five consecutive wins over opponents who entered with strong records. In his latest appearance, the American defeated highly rated contender Jay Jay Wilson.

Colgan is also a well-rounded fighter. He uses straight punches, hooks, and low kicks in the stand-up exchanges. His takedown game is based on conventional entries and trips, while he generally looks to maintain control from top position. However, Nurmagomedov holds a slight technical advantage in each of those areas. Colgan’s main strengths are his physical power and reliable cardio.

Notable Fights

Usman Nurmagomedov: defeated Alfie Davis, Paul Hughes, Patricky Freire, Benson Henderson, and Alexandr Shabliy.

Archie Colgan: defeated Jay Jay Wilson, Mansour Barnaoui, Manoel Sousa, and Emmanuel Sanchez.

Stats and Trends

• Nurmagomedov has faced several high-level opponents and has proven himself as a complete mixed martial artist. Colgan is less experienced and has not yet fought for a championship in a major promotion.
• Four of Nurmagomedov’s last five fights went to the judges’ scorecards. Colgan has recorded only six stoppages in 13 professional appearances. The fight going the distance is a reasonable option.

Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie Colgan Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

Nurmagomedov is the favorite, and that assessment is justified. Colgan is a credible challenger, but he has faced fewer elite opponents and gives up both height and reach. Nurmagomedov is a technically complete fighter who can control the pace, score consistently, and finish rounds strongly. The pick is Usman Nurmagomedov to win by decision.