Real Madrid vs Fiorentina 1 August 2026 Prediction

Real Madrid will open its European preseason tour in Klagenfurt, Austria, against Fiorentina, which is celebrating its centenary this year. The teams have met twice in unofficial matches during the 21st century, with both games ending 2-1. Fiorentina won one of those meetings.

Real Madrid Is Still Without Its Biggest Stars

Real Madrid finished last season without a trophy, a major disappointment for the most successful club in European soccer. Changes followed, with José Mourinho returning to Madrid after previously managing the team from 2010 to 2013. Real Madrid has already played two friendlies under the Portuguese manager, defeating lower-division Spanish opponents Alcorcón 1-0 and Leganés 4-1.

Mourinho is known for his defensive approach. In Madrid’s first summer friendly, however, the team controlled more than 70% of possession and played direct, vertical soccer in attack. The match against Leganés also showed that the squad is in good physical condition for this stage of preseason. Federico Valverde, Arda Güler, and Trent Alexander-Arnold combined effectively with the younger players.

Real Madrid has already completed several major summer signings, adding Ibrahima Konaté, Marc Cucurella, Bernardo Silva, and Denzel Dumfries. Of those four, only Dumfries is likely to receive playing time against Fiorentina, most likely replacing Alexander-Arnold after halftime. The attack should again feature several young reserves. Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham are still resting after the World Cup, while Rodrygo remains sidelined with a torn ACL.

Fiorentina Has Defensive Problems

Paolo Vanoli kept Fiorentina in Serie A but did not convince the club to extend his tenure. Fabio Grosso, who built an attractive team during his two years at Sassuolo, has taken over. The 48-year-old began his time in Florence with an unconvincing 1-0 win over Gubbio, followed by two contrasting matches against Championship opposition: a 2-3 loss to Queens Park Rangers and a 1-0 victory over Watford.

Fiorentina is still adapting to Grosso’s requirements and searching for its best lineup. The main concern is in defense. Despite signing center backs Radu Drăgușin and Vieri, Fiorentina allowed a combined 20 shots across its last two friendlies against relatively modest opposition. Roberto Piccoli has been one of the positives. The Italian forward was criticized for poor finishing last season but has scored in two of three matches under Grosso.

Starting striker Moise Kean did not play in Fiorentina’s second friendly after missing the previous training session. The club has described his absence as part of an individual preparation plan, although Como is also interested in signing him. Fiorentina has added two expensive midfielders alongside its defensive reinforcements. Christ Inao Oulaï has only recently returned from his post-World Cup break, while Arthur Atta has already scored his first goal for the club against QPR.

Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineup

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Rivas, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Camavinga; Mastantuono, Güler, Chirea; Yáñez

Unavailable: Rodrygo, Militão, Mendy, Pitarch (injured); Mbappé, Bellingham, Vinícius, B. Silva, B. Díaz, Endrick, Tchouaméni, Konaté, Courtois (not in the squad)

Manager: José Mourinho

Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea; Vieri, Drăgușin, Ranieri; Dodô, Atta, Fagioli, Ndour, Fortini; Guðmundsson, Piccoli

Unavailable: Parisi (injured); Kean (doubtful)

Manager: Fabio Grosso

Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Prediction: Real Madrid Handicap -1.5

• Main prediction: Fiorentina is working under a heavy preseason training load, and its performances have not been convincing. The Italian side was outplayed for long periods by average Championship opposition and faces a much more difficult test against Real Madrid. Even without several key players, Mourinho’s team has looked more organized. Competition for starting places should also keep Madrid’s players motivated throughout the friendly. The pick is Real Madrid -1.5 handicap at 2.10.
• Total prediction: Mourinho still has work to do with Madrid’s defensive structure. Despite facing weaker opposition, the team has allowed several dangerous chances in each friendly. Fiorentina has scored in all three matches under Grosso. With both managers expected to rotate heavily, there should be opportunities at both ends. The pick is over 3.5 total goals at 1.85.