Lazio Rome vs Inter Milano 13 May 2026 Prediction

Inter last won a domestic double under Jose Mourinho in 2010. Sixteen years later, the Nerazzurri can repeat that achievement under Cristian Chivu, who was an important part of that great team.

The Milan club deservedly enters the Coppa Italia final as the clear favorite. Inter have won each of the last four finals they have played in. Lazio, by contrast, have lost two of their last three finals, beating only Atalanta in the 2018/19 season.

No Regulation-Time Wins Since the Round of 16

In Serie A, Lazio are not fighting for the top places this season, so Maurizio Sarri’s team has long been fully focused on the Coppa Italia. In this competition, the Eagles first eliminated last season’s finalists, Milan and Bologna, before getting past Atalanta, a team that regularly competes for trophies. Still, Lazio did not outperform Atalanta in either semifinal match. In fact, their last regulation-time win in this tournament came back in December.

A Smoother Path to Rome

Inter clinched the Scudetto with three rounds to spare, and their overall unbeaten run now stands at nine official matches. Their Coppa Italia path was also much easier than Lazio’s. On the way to the final, Inter beat Serie B side Venezia, mid-table Serie A team Torino, and Como, who reached this stage for the first time in 40 years. Only Como created real problems for Cristian Chivu’s team: in the second half of the return semifinal, the Nerazzurri came back from 0-2 down and still found a way to win.

Lazio vs Inter Predicted Lineup

Lazio (4-3-3): Motta — Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares — Basic, Rovella, Taylor — Isaksen, Noslin, Pedro

Out: Provedel, Cataldi (both injured), Zaccagni (doubtful)

Manager: Maurizio Sarri

Inter (3-5-2): J. Martinez — Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni — Dumfries, Barella, Zielinski, Sucic, Dimarco — Thuram, L. Martinez

Out: Calhanoglu (doubtful)

Manager: Cristian Chivu

Referee: Marco Guida

Marco Guida usually takes a fairly lenient approach. Across his last 20 official matches, he has averaged exactly three yellow cards and 23.25 fouls per game. We should not expect a high number of bookings here either. Lazio’s Coppa Italia matches this season have averaged the same three yellow cards, while Inter’s matches have averaged even fewer, at 1.5.

Experience as the Main Advantage

The winning mentality of the newly crowned Italian champion could be decisive. Since their Coppa Italia final win in 2022/23, Inter have kept the core of the team together: Bastoni, Dumfries, Dimarco, Barella, and Lautaro. They have also kept the same system and main playing principles. Lazio last won a trophy in 2019, and from the current squad, only veteran Adam Marusic played in that final against Atalanta. His influence is no longer as significant. The head-to-head record is also worth noting: Lazio’s last win in this matchup came in 2022, while both Serie A meetings this season ended in Inter victories.

Lazio vs Inter Prediction: Inter -1.5 at 2.69

• Main Pick: Just a few days ago, Inter beat Lazio comfortably in the league, 3-0. The favorite should not have major problems in the cup final either. The Nerazzurri are used to high-pressure matches, with nine wins in their last 13 official games against Serie A top-10 opponents. Lazio, meanwhile, have failed to win in regulation in any of their last three Coppa Italia matches. It is also worth noting that the Romans have suffered four home losses by at least two goals this year against teams from the top eight. The pick is Inter -1.5 at 2.69.
• Goals Pick: Lazio have often been criticized for being too pragmatic this season, but they have scored in every Coppa Italia match. Josep Martinez’s goal may not stay untouched here, as this final is not only a chance for Lazio to win a trophy but also their last route into Europe. Inter have also kept only three clean sheets in their last 10 official matches. The recommended play is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.82.
• Correct Score Pick: Lazio have scored only one goal in 75% of their matches in this tournament. Inter, meanwhile, have scored 10 goals in four Coppa Italia matches, averaging 2.5 per game. That is also exactly how many goals per match the Nerazzurri have scored against Lazio this season. The correct score pick is 3-1 to Inter at 8.25.