Nantes vs Toulouse 17 May 2026 Prediction

Since the 2021/22 season, every team that has conceded at least three goals in one match against Angers has been relegated from Ligue 1. Metz, Bordeaux, Saint-Etienne, and Montpellier were previous victims of that “curse.” Nantes has now joined the list.

Still, Vahid Halilhodzic’s team has a chance to end the season with a positive statement. Toulouse, whose best possible finish is ninth place, will visit Stade de la Beaujoire.

Nantes’ Improved Scoring Was Not Enough

Vahid Halilhodzic did not become Nantes’ savior. In fact, Nantes earned exactly the same number of points under him as it did under Ahmed Kantari: six. The 73-year-old manager has only one win, though it was a memorable one: a 3-0 victory over Marseille.

Still, the Bosnian manager did manage to improve one area. Previously, the Yellow and Greens averaged 0.9 home goals per match, but under Halilhodzic, Nantes has scored six goals in three home games. That came against solid opposition: Marseille (3-0), Brest (1-1), and Strasbourg (2-3).

Toulouse Is Giving Its Manager a Strong Send-Off

Toulouse is saying goodbye to Carles Martinez. After three years as manager, the Spaniard is leaving his position. Twice under the 41-year-old manager, Toulouse has come close to the top nine, but it has not yet managed to break into the top half of the table. That same scenario could repeat this year.

Still, Toulouse is doing everything it can to finish as high as possible under Martinez. Since the news of his departure came out, Toulouse has taken maximum points, beating Strasbourg (2-1) and Lyon (2-1). But not everything depends on the visitors: along with their own win, they also need Lorient to slip up.

Nantes vs Toulouse Predicted Lineup

Nantes (3-5-2): Lopes — Awaziem, Radakovic, Cozza — Guilbert, Kaba, Sissoko, Lepenant, Leroux — Ganago, Abline

Out: Centonze, Amian-Adou, Tati, Deuff, Machado (all injured), Coquelin (doubtful)

Manager: Vahid Halilhodzic

Toulouse (3-4-2-1): Restes — McKenzie, Cresswell, Nicolaisen — Sidibe, Vossa, Casseres, Methalie — Hidalgo, Gboho — Russell-Rowe

Out: Magri, Messali (both injured), Donnum (suspended)

Manager: Carles Martinez

Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Frappart cannot be considered one of Ligue 1’s lenient referees. She has limited herself to three yellow cards in only five matches. However, she rarely uses stricter disciplinary measures.

• Has officiated 13 Ligue 1 matches in the 2025/26 season
• Averages 3.9 yellow cards and 24.3 fouls per match
• Has not shown a red card
• Has awarded five penalties (38%)

Stats and Trends

• In 19 of Toulouse’s 33 matches, there have been at least nine corners. In 22 of Nantes’ 33 matches, there have also been at least nine corners. Over 8.5 total corners is expected.
• In 21 of Nantes’ 33 matches, referees showed at least four yellow cards. In 22 of Toulouse’s 33 matches, officials also did not stop at three bookings. Over 3.5 total yellow cards is expected.

Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction: Toulouse to Win at 2.66

• Main Pick: We have already mentioned Nantes’ strong win over Marseille. But Olympique has been very poor under Habib Beye, especially away from home. Against other opponents, the Canaries did not get the job done, including against direct rivals Metz (0-0) and Auxerre (0-0). Toulouse, meanwhile, has found excellent form late in the season and has been beating top-half opponents. It is also worth noting that Toulouse has won three of its last five head-to-head matches at Stade de la Beaujoire. The recommended pick is Toulouse to win at 2.66.
• Total Pick: At least three goals have been scored in each of Toulouse’s last six league matches. The same applies to three of Nantes’ last four games. The first meeting this season gave fans four goals (2-2). With both teams having little to lose, an open attacking match is expected. The betting option to consider is over 2.5 goals at 1.75.
• Correct Score Pick: Before dropping to Ligue 2, Nantes should still give its fans at least one goal. But Toulouse’s attack is in strong form: in each of the last four rounds, the Violets have scored twice against top-half opponents. Against a lower-table side, the visitors could do even more. A riskier option is correct score 2-3 at 25.00.