Nice vs Metz 17 May 2026 Prediction

Nice is following a path similar to last year’s Reims. On May 22, the Eaglets will face Lens in the Coupe de France final, but in Ligue 1, they have dropped into the relegation playoff zone.

Still, Claude Puel’s team can fix the situation in the final round, as already relegated Metz is coming to the French Riviera. Can the visitors drag Nice down with them to Ligue 2?

Nice Is on the Edge

In recent league rounds, the Eaglets have been collecting points little by little to avoid the relegation playoff. The French Riviera club competed well against Ligue 1 leaders: Lille (0-0), Marseille (1-1), and Lens (1-1). However, all that progress was undone by one defeat to a direct survival rival, Auxerre (1-2).

Now, to stay in the top division without additional stress, Nice needs to earn more points than the Burgundy side or hope Le Havre slips up while Nice wins its own match. The situation is complicated by the fact that under Puel, the Eaglets have not yet won a Ligue 1 home match.

Metz Has Earned the Label of Ligue 1’s Worst Club

Twenty-one rounds without a win is a statistic that leaves no realistic chance of staying in the top division. Metz has confirmed its status as a French yo-yo club: no team has been relegated from and promoted back to Ligue 1 more often.

Recently, the Maroons have stopped defending properly. Metz has conceded 16 goals over the last five rounds. Under these circumstances, the club’s first win under its new manager will likely come in Ligue 2, assuming Benoit Tavenot keeps his job.

Nice vs Metz Predicted Lineup

Nice (3-5-2): Diouf — Mendy, Ba, Oppong — Clauss, Sanson, Boudaoui, Abdul Samed, Abdi — Wahi, Cho

Out: Abdelmonem, Bombito, Everton (all injured), Bard (yellow-card suspension)

Manager: Claude Puel

Metz (4-2-3-1): Sy — Kouao, S. Sane, Yegbe, Sarr — Gbamin, Deminguet — Abuashvili, Hein, Tsitaishvili — Kvilitaia

Out: Mellieres (injury), Mbala (doubtful)

Manager: Benoit Tavenot

Referee: Jeremy Pignard

The 38-year-old referee is among Ligue 1’s stricter officials. Pignard not only shows plenty of yellow cards, but is also willing to use stronger disciplinary measures such as penalties and red cards.

• Has officiated 16 Ligue 1 matches in the 2025/26 season
• Averages 4.1 yellow cards and 23.2 fouls per match
• Has shown seven red cards (25%)
• Has awarded eight penalties (44%)

Stats and Trends

• In 22 of Nice’s 33 matches, the Eaglets took no more than six corners. Metz has also kept opponents below seven corners in 27 of its 33 matches. Nice under 6.5 team corners is expected.
• In 21 of Metz’s 33 matches, its players received at least two yellow cards. Nice has the same trend. Over 3.5 total yellow cards is worth considering.

Nice vs Metz Prediction: Nice -1.5 at 1.87

• Main Pick: Nice has everything needed to make its stay in the relegation playoff zone brief. First, almost all key starters are available, with the exception of suspended Melvin Bard. Second, Metz has no tournament goals left, and its defensive play has been extremely poor. Also, with the Coupe de France final ahead, the Eaglets have no interest in playing two extra survival playoff matches. In this game, the hosts should do everything possible to earn their first Ligue 1 home win under Puel. The recommended pick is Nice -1.5 at 1.87.
• Goals Pick: Still, Metz is unlikely to finish its final Ligue 1 match with a scoreless defeat. Tavenot’s team has scored in four of the last five rounds. In addition, the Maroons have scored in four of their last five visits to Allianz Riviera. The betting option to consider is both teams to score — yes at 1.90.
• Correct Score Pick: However, Tavenot’s team is unlikely to score more than once. Nice has conceded at least two goals only once in the last five rounds. At the same time, Metz’s defense has been breached at least three times in 18 of its 33 league matches. A riskier option is correct score 3-1 at 10.00.