Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund 16 May 2026 Prediction

This match will likely attract less attention than it would at almost any other point of the season. That is because both clubs no longer have much tournament motivation: Borussia Dortmund is locked into second place, while Werder Bremen can no longer fall below 15th.

For the home side, though, this may be the best time to end a six-match winless run in this head-to-head matchup and respond to the 3-0 loss from the first meeting this season.

Werder Bremen Is the Best of the Bottom Teams

Daniel Thioune did what he was asked to do: he kept the club in the Bundesliga. His start was difficult, with three straight losses, and at that point it looked like Werder’s decline might continue. Bremen created a safer gap over the relegation zone mainly through wins in direct matches against rivals, beating Heidenheim 2-0 and Wolfsburg 1-0.

Werder was fortunate to secure safety early, because its record against top-five teams has been weak. Over the full season, the team has taken only two points in those matches, and both came with some luck. The first was back in August, and the second came recently against Stuttgart, 1-1, when the opponent missed several clear chances.

Borussia Dortmund Has Not Been Impressive Away Recently

Despite a poor winter stretch in the Champions League and an early German Cup exit, Borussia Dortmund’s board appears satisfied with Niko Kovac’s work. Reports suggest the Croatian manager may soon be offered a new contract. Dortmund’s steady Bundesliga results have outweighed the negatives. With a win over Werder, the team would reach 73 points and improve on its totals from each of the previous six seasons.

That is despite Dortmund easing off recently and losing three of its last five league matches. Across its last two away games, the team generated only 1.18 expected goals in total. Dortmund has often been criticized for being too pragmatic, and that trend has become even clearer lately.

Key Things to Know

• A red card was shown in 5 of Werder Bremen’s last 9 matches, with Bremen itself finishing with 10 men twice.
• Borussia Dortmund has opened the scoring in 25 of 33 Bundesliga rounds.
• 13 of Borussia Dortmund’s 18 away goals conceded in the Bundesliga came in the second half.

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Predicted Lineup

Werder Bremen (4-3-3): Backhaus — Agu, Pieper, Friedl, Deman — Stage, Lynen, Puertas — Njinmah, Maza, Schmid

Out: Sugawara (suspension), Hein, Weiser, Malatini, Bittencourt, Topp (all injured)

Manager: Daniel Thioune

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Kobel — Rejany, Anton, Schlotterbeck — Couto, Sabitzer, Jobe, Svensson — Beier, Chukwuemeka — Silva

Out: Can, Bensebaini (both injured)

Manager: Niko Kovac

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Dankert ranks among the five most lenient Bundesliga referees this season in almost every category except penalties. Werder has averaged two yellow cards across its last four matches with him in charge, while Borussia Dortmund has averaged 1.75. Bremen also received two red cards in those games.

• 13 Bundesliga matches officiated this season
• Averages: 2.92 yellow cards and 19 fouls per match
• Penalties awarded in 3 matches (23.1%)
• Red cards shown in 1 match (7.7%)

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to Win at 1.95

• Main Pick: Borussia Dortmund is the favorite. Neither team has major tournament motivation, so the edge goes to the stronger squad. Even when Werder still needed points to secure survival, it failed to beat opponents of this level. Kovac’s team, meanwhile, has dropped points only once against a bottom-half club since November. The pick is Borussia Dortmund to win at 1.95.
• Total Pick: With no major pressure on either side, the game could be more open. The first meeting produced three goals, and this match could go higher. Werder should be more active in attack, having averaged 1.4 goals across its last 10 league rounds. Dortmund also has one of the better finishing rates in the league, with 68 goals scored from 64 expected goals. The pick is over 3.5 goals at 2.00.
• Correct Score Pick: It is also worth noting that Borussia Dortmund has allowed only 18 goals in 16 away league matches, while it has not scored more than three goals in any of them. The preferred correct score is 3-1 to Borussia Dortmund at 13.00.