Atletico Madrid vs Girona 17 May 2026 Prediction

Atletico is playing its final home match in a mixed season of missed opportunities. Simeone’s team came close in the Copa del Rey and reached the Champions League semifinals. In La Liga, however, Atletico lost focus around the middle of the second half of the season.

Girona needs points even away from home against the favorite. With only one point separating the team from the relegation zone, the visitors have every reason to give everything in the survival race. Can Girona pull off an upset?

Calm in Madrid

Atletico is finishing the season without much momentum, with five defeats in the last eight league rounds. Simeone’s team has already secured a Champions League place, and the battle with Villarreal for third place does not seem to be a major source of motivation for Atletico. That helps explain losses to Elche (2-3) and Sevilla (1-2), both of whom are fighting to avoid relegation.

At the Metropolitano, where Atletico was dominant for much of the La Liga season, visiting teams now look more comfortable. Across the last five home matches in all competitions, Simeone’s side has recorded only one win, beating Athletic Bilbao 3-2. The latest result was especially telling, as Atletico lost 1-0 at home to Celta. Atletico created plenty of chances, finishing with 2.01 xG, but failed to score because of poor execution and concentration.

Survival Is at Stake

Girona has much stronger motivation. The visitors have struggled overall in the decisive part of the season and are winless in six matches. Still, there is an important detail: Girona has not collapsed against top-10 opponents. The team took points from Real Sociedad (1-1), Rayo Vallecano (1-1), and most importantly, Real Madrid at the Bernabeu (1-1).

Girona’s defense has also held up reasonably well on the road. Over the last five away league matches, Michel’s team has conceded only six goals. That stretch included matches against Real Madrid and Osasuna (0-1), both difficult home opponents. With Girona’s survival at stake, the visitors should be fully committed defensively and physically.

What to Know

• Atletico has conceded in the second half in five of its last six La Liga home matches.
• Girona has scored in the second half in five of its last six away league matches.
• Five of Girona’s last seven away matches in La Liga have ended in a draw.

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Predicted Lineup

Atletico (4-2-3-1): Oblak — Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Ruggeri — Koke, Vargas — Almada, Griezmann, Lookman — Sorloth

Out: Gimenez, Mendoza, Cardoso, Molina (all injured), Barrios, Gonzalez, Alvarez (all doubtful), Llorente (yellow-card suspension)

Manager: Diego Simeone

Girona (4-2-3-1): Gazzaniga — Arnau, Reyes, Frances, Moreno — Witsel, Beltran — Tsygankov, Ounahi, Roca — Echeverri

Out: J. Martin, Portu, Ter Stegen, Vanat (all injured), Van de Beek (doubtful)

Manager: Michel

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction: Girona Double Chance at 2.00

• Main Pick: Team motivation clearly favors the visitors. Atletico’s key players will want to avoid injuries ahead of the 2026 World Cup, while Michel’s team has no margin for error. Girona has drawn five of its last seven away La Liga matches, including road results against European playoff teams Real Madrid (1-1) and Rayo Vallecano (1-1). The pick is Girona double chance at 2.00. 
• Goals Pick: Atletico remains dangerous going forward, but its defense has not been reliable late in the La Liga season. The hosts have conceded in seven of their last eight league matches, including against relegation-threatened Elche (2-3) and Sevilla (1-2). Girona plays cautiously away from home and has averaged 1.02 xG across the last five away league rounds, but it has converted chances efficiently. The logical play is both teams to score — yes at 1.77.
• Correct Score Pick: We expect this Matchday 37 game to end in a draw. The visitors will focus on defense, and they have done that fairly well recently. Over the last five away matches, Girona has conceded just over one goal per game on average and even withstood Real Madrid’s pressure in a 1-1 draw. At the same time, Michel’s team has regularly created chances on the road, scoring in six of its last seven away La Liga matches. The value option is  correct score 1-1 at 7.00.