Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun 28 July 2026 Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb enters the second leg against Thun as the favorite, but the 1-1 draw in Switzerland showed that experience and squad quality may not be enough on their own. Can Thun cause another problem for the Croatian side, this time in Zagreb?

Dinamo Zagreb Is Without Its Main Playmaker

As expected, Dinamo attacked frequently in the first leg, recording 20 shots, including 12 from inside the penalty area. However, only six attempts were on target, and the team generated just 1.27 xG. Dinamo reached dangerous areas regularly but created few clear chances. That was unexpected after the Croatian club scored 16 goals across three summer friendlies against Slovenian opponents.

The absence of Luka Stojković had a clear impact on Dinamo’s attack. The midfielder recorded 13 goals and 12 assists in 42 appearances across all competitions last season and will again miss the game through suspension. Gabriel Vidović has filled his position, although 10 of his 13 goal contributions over the past year came while playing as a left winger. He is unlikely to return to that role because Milan Oršić is now operating on the flank after returning to the club, where he previously made 217 appearances. Oršić also recorded three goals and three assists for Pafos in last season’s Champions League, including a goal against Bayern Munich.

Thun Has Started the Season Strongly

Thun lost manager Mauro Lustrinelli, who led the club to the league title, while Elmin Rastoder and Franz-Ethan Meichtry were sold for record fees. The club did not make any equivalent signings, but new manager Gian-Luca Primitelli still guided the team to a positive result in the first leg and a 3-1 away victory over Lucerne in the opening round of the Swiss Super League.

Thun plays proactive soccer and did not sit deep against Dinamo. Despite generating only 0.92 xG, the Swiss side led 2-1 in clear scoring chances. Thun was again efficient against Lucerne, scoring three goals from 1.92 xG, although it allowed 2.53 xGA and benefited from poor finishing by its opponent. The visitors are likely to take a more cautious approach in Zagreb but should still look for opportunities on the counterattack.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun Predicted Lineup

Dinamo Zagreb (4-2-3-1): Filipović; Valinčić, Domínguez, McKenna, Goda; Mišić, Zajc; Lisica, Vidović, Oršić; Beljo

Unavailable: Stojković (suspended)

Manager: Mario Kovačević

Thun (4-4-2): Steffen; Dähler, Bürgi, Bamert, Balaruban; Meier, Zukić, Sais, Dërbaci; Gutbub, Stewart

Unavailable: Montolio, Käit (both injured)

Manager: Gian-Luca Primitelli

Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov (Bulgaria)

Gidzhenov uses a strict approach regardless of the competition. He has officiated only one Champions League match, showing six yellow cards, while his average across all European competitions is 4.6 cards per game. He has also issued three red cards in 10 European fixtures. In the Bulgarian league, he averages 5.03 yellow cards per match.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun Prediction: Thun Handicap +1.5

• Main prediction: Thun won the Swiss championship last season despite having only the seventh-largest budget in the league and continues to outperform expectations. Dinamo remains the favorite to advance, but another comfortable result is far from guaranteed. In its previous two Champions League qualifying campaigns, Dinamo either progressed easily, defeating Qarabağ 5-0 on aggregate, or struggled in both legs, losing 1-2 and drawing 2-2 with AEK. The Croatian side reached the final third regularly last week but created few clear chances. Home-field advantage should help, but Thun has been just as effective on the road as at home. Last season, it collected 38 home points and 37 away points, and it opened the new league campaign with a two-goal road victory. The pick is Thun +1.5 handicap at 1.73.
• Total prediction: Both teams have converted their chances efficiently. They combined for 2.19 xG and two goals in the first leg, while Dinamo was highly productive during preseason. Thun has scored and conceded in every match under Primitelli and found the net three times from 1.92 xG against Lucerne. The visitors are unlikely to keep a clean sheet in Zagreb, but they should create chances on the counterattack as they push for qualification. The pick is both teams to score at 2.00.