Independiente vs Newell´s Old Boys 31 July 2026 Prediction

Independiente hosts Newell’s Old Boys at Estadio Libertadores de América in the second round of the Argentine Clausura. Both teams opened the tournament with a win and enter this match on three points. Independiente has also won its last three home meetings with Newell’s and has not lost this matchup in Avellaneda since 2021.

Independiente

Independiente sits second in Group A after opening the Clausura with a 2-0 away win over Estudiantes. The club is also ninth in the annual standings. Across 20 league matches, Independiente has recorded seven wins, six draws, and five losses. The team averages 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game. Its average xG is 1.14, while its xGA stands at 1.25. The attack has been highly efficient, scoring more often than the quality of its chances would normally suggest. Independiente has won three of its last five league matches, with one draw and one loss. In eight home games, the team has four wins, three draws, and one defeat while averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Independiente plays with greater intensity at home and regularly puts opposing defenses under pressure.

Newell’s Old Boys

Newell’s Old Boys is third in Group A after a 1-0 home win over Talleres Córdoba in the opening round. The club is 24th in the annual standings. Across 20 league matches, Newell’s has recorded four wins, six draws, and seven losses. The team averages 0.94 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game. Its xG average is 0.93, while its xGA stands at 1.48. Those numbers reflect regular problems in chance creation and defensive organization. Newell’s has one win, three draws, and one loss in its last five league matches. In eight away games, the team has two wins, two draws, and four defeats while averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. Its defense has been particularly vulnerable on the road.

Match Motivation

The points are important for both teams in the annual standings. Independiente is ninth with 27 points and currently occupies the final Copa Sudamericana qualifying position. A home win would strengthen its place in the continental qualification zone. Newell’s is 24th with 18 points. The visitors are 10 points clear of last place, but they still need a positive result to move closer to the top half of the table.

Team News

Independiente has no suspended or injured players, while Gabriel Ávalos remains the main attacking threat after scoring in the opening-round win. Ever Banega continues to lead Newell’s midfield and has recorded three assists in the league. The visitors will be without defender Alejo Montero, who is sidelined with a knee injury.

Independiente vs Newell’s Old Boys Prediction: Independiente Team Total Over 1.5 Goals

• Main prediction: Independiente averages 1.88 goals per home match, while Newell’s concedes 2.13 goals per away game. The difference between the teams’ home and away performances suggests that the hosts should create enough chances to score at least twice. The pick is Independiente team total over 1.5 goals at 2.00. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 57%, making odds above 1.75 worth considering.
• Total prediction: Independiente’s home matches average three total goals, while Newell’s away games average 3.25. The numbers point to a match with enough attacking opportunities at both ends. The pick is over 2 total goals at 1.70. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 65%, making odds above 1.54 worth considering.