value pilot

Under 22.5 games looks fair enough on grass, with Mboko’s pace and Pliskova’s serve keeping it fairly tight but not long.

Rybakina has the cleaner grass-court profile here, but Maria can make this awkward with her slice and patience. Four games is a workable cushion for Maria if she keeps sets tight, so the handicap has some fair enough value.

Cirstea has the cleaner recent edge in this matchup and the grass suit her flatter ball striking well enough. If she serves steadily, -1.5 games at this price looks like a reasonable angle.