Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria 12 June 2026 Prediction

Maria continues her unbeaten run at the WTA 500 event in London. Could the German defend her title in the English capital? Last season, neither Muchova, Rybakina, Keys, nor Anisimova could stop her. Rybakina now gets a second chance to beat Tatjana on these courts.

Surface Speed: 8/10

Rybakina

Elena has a strong chance to pass Sabalenka during the short grass-court stretch and become world No. 1 for the first time. Rybakina does not have many points to defend, including at Wimbledon, so the opportunity is fully in her hands. If she wins the title in London, the gap to Aryna will shrink to 555 points.

Rybakina has the best serve in the women’s tour. Last season, Elena comfortably led the tour in aces with 516. She is also far ahead in 2026, already hitting 250 aces across 39 matches.

Grass fits Rybakina’s style perfectly. It was surprising that Elena had a weak grass-court stretch last season. In London, the Moscow-born player suffered a surprise quarterfinal loss to Maria. In Berlin, at the same stage, she allowed Sabalenka to save four match points in a final-set tiebreak. At Wimbledon, she went out in the third round against Tauson.

Maria

The 38-year-old German is the oldest player in the top 100. Still, to remain inside the top 100, Tatjana likely needs at least a semifinal run in London. The match against Rybakina should show whether Maria is ready to repeat last year’s run.

Maria’s unusual style frustrates many opponents, and it is especially effective on fast, low-bouncing grass. The German has signature slice shots toward the baseline, drop shots, lobs, and even a one-handed backhand. Tatjana also often uses wide angled serves that pull opponents off the court, similar to Agassi’s style.

Grass is probably Maria’s most comfortable surface. In addition to last year’s WTA 500 title in London, she won the WTA 250 event in Mallorca in 2018. Over her career, Tatjana has won 67% of her grass-court matches (83-41).

Tournament Progress

• Rybakina starts her London campaign from the second round.
• As last season, Maria began her WTA 500 run in London from qualifying, where she beat Miyazaki (6:2, 1:6, 6:2) and Rakhimova (6:4, 6:3). In the first round of the main draw, the defending champion comfortably beat Sakkari (6:3, 6:3).

Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Prediction: Maria Handicap +4.5

• Main Prediction: Maria has been excellent in London, and this venue suits her game very well. Her unusual style has always been dangerous on grass. In 2022, Tatjana reached the Wimbledon semifinals, losing there to her friend Jabeur, who was then beaten by Rybakina in the final. In our view, last year’s London matchup between Maria and Rybakina can follow a similar pattern again, so an upset cannot be ruled out. We are backing Maria to win with a +4.5 game handicap at 1.97.
• Total Prediction: Maria has won 10 straight matches at the WTA 500 event in London. She beat Rybakina on these courts last season (6:4, 7:6). In 19 of her last 21 grass-court matches, Tatjana has won at least 11 games. Meanwhile, in 2025, Elena allowed opponents to win 9 or more games in 5 of her 8 grass-court matches. There is value in taking Maria over 8.5 games at 1.83.