USA vs Paraguay 13 June 2026 Prediction

The United States will be the last of the World Cup hosts to begin its campaign. However, creating a positive start in front of 70,000 fans will not be easy, as Paraguay should be a difficult opponent. The key question is whether Paraguay’s organized defense can hold up under pressure from a highly motivated American team.

USA Is Not as Strong as It May Seem

The United States prepared for the World Cup through friendly matches, including games against South American opponents: 1-1 against Ecuador, 2-1 against Paraguay, and 5-1 against Uruguay. However, it would be difficult to say that the Americans dominated those matches. In each of those games, the hosts conceded, while scoring eight goals from only 2.97 expected goals. That suggests the attack was highly efficient, but if Paraguay offers stronger defensive resistance, the U.S. forward line may have problems.

The Americans have quality forwards. Balogun, Pepi, and Wright have combined for 56 club goals this season. However, the United States’ World Cup performance will largely depend on Christian Pulisic, who has 33 goals and 22 assists in 86 national-team matches and is expected to act as the main playmaker. Still, in 2026, he has produced a goal contribution in only three matches, so there are questions about his current form. If Paraguay marks him tightly and limits his distribution, it will be difficult for the hosts to break down a compact defense.

The weak point for the United States is its defense, which is built mostly around players from mid-table clubs in Europe’s top five leagues, including Mark McKenzie of Toulouse and Chris Richards of Crystal Palace. That is why Pochettino used a three-center-back system in recent friendlies to cover the lack of top-level defensive quality. In addition, with two defensive midfielders missing, Tanner Tessmann and Johnny Cardoso, who have 14 and 23 national-team appearances respectively, more defensive responsibility falls on Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie, who have 120 combined caps, with limited rotation options. Because this setup has not been tested much in official matches, there are still questions about its defensive reliability.

Paraguay Will Prioritize Defense

Paraguay qualified for the World Cup after scoring only 14 goals in 18 qualifying matches, an average of 0.78 per game. Its average of 0.89 xG confirms the team’s attacking problems, as Paraguay often fails to create even one expected goal per match. Julio Enciso’s injury makes the situation worse, while potential replacements Mauricio and Sosa have only one combined goal for Paraguay. Without its second-best scorer from qualifying, much of the attacking responsibility will fall on Antonio Sanabria, who scored four goals in the qualifiers. Given that he has only seven goals in 48 matches for Paraguay, it is difficult to expect high attacking output from the visitors.

Paraguay earned its World Cup place largely through its defensive line. The team conceded only 10 goals across the entire qualifying campaign, an average of 0.56 per match, with only Ecuador conceding fewer. The 0.91 xGA figure suggests the defense was fortunate at times, but that does not take away from the impact of the experienced center-back pairing of Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete, who started together in eight of 12 qualifying matches under the new manager and became the foundation of Paraguay’s defensive setup. Defensive midfielders Bobadilla and Cubas should also drop deeper, forming a compact low block in front of their own goal.

Before the World Cup, Paraguay tried to move away from its defensive style in friendlies against opponents close to the United States in level. That helped improve the team’s attacking numbers, with 1.17 goals scored per match compared to 0.78 in qualifying, but it also led to more defensive problems, with 1.5 goals conceded per match compared to 0.56. Given the pressure of the World Cup and the fact that it is possible to advance from the group in third place, we expect Paraguay to return to a defensive approach and look for counterattacks while trying to avoid defeat.

USA vs Paraguay Predicted Lineup

USA (3-4-2-1): Freese – McKenzie, Ream, Richards – Dest, Adams, McKennie, A. Robinson – Tillman, Pulisic – Balogun

Will not play: Cardoso, Luna (both injured), Tessmann (not in the squad)

Manager: Mauricio Pochettino

Paraguay (4-2-3-1): R. Fernández – J. Cáceres, G. Gómez, Alderete, Alonso – Cubas, Bobadilla – Almirón, D. Gómez, Mauricio – Sanabria

Will not play: Enciso (injured)

Manager: Gustavo Alfaro

Referee: Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)

Makkelie is an experienced referee who does not call too many fouls, averaging 22.3 per match. This season, he has also been relatively moderate with cards, showing 3.1 yellow cards per game on average. However, a penalty is possible in this match, as the Dutch referee points to the spot in roughly every second game.

USA vs Paraguay Prediction: Paraguay Double Chance at 1.88

Main prediction: In most of their friendlies, the United States faced teams that put significant focus on attacking play. Breaking down a deep defensive block may be a different challenge. Paraguay should focus on defense and look for rare counterattacking opportunities. In addition, the visitors are unlikely to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere: under Alfaro, Paraguay has lost only one official away match, and that was a 1-0 defeat to Brazil. The United States has attacking quality, but not at the same level as Brazil. For that reason, it is worth considering Paraguay Double Chance at 1.88.

Total prediction: In theory, a team can advance from the group even from third place with three draws, so Paraguay is unlikely to force the tempo. Its cautious style has produced results. In addition, 14 of Paraguay’s 18 qualifying matches finished with no more than two goals. The United States should also avoid unnecessary risks because of Paraguay’s ability to counter quickly into space. The recommended bet is under 2.5 goals at 1.65.