Portugal vs Montenegro 2 July 2026 Prediction

Portugal kept the July window interesting by losing to Romania in Round 4 of 2027 World Cup qualifying, 96-101. The hosts still hope to reach the World Cup for the first time, but there is work to do. Can they handle a stubborn Montenegro team?

Portugal No Longer Looks Like an Easy Opponent

Portuguese basketball is improving. The hosts have enough talent, with Williams and Brito becoming real leaders for this national team. Still, it will be difficult for Portugal to become even a stable mid-level European side. The short rotation remains a problem, which is why even outsiders like Romania can beat Mario Gomes’ team. Before Round 5, Portugal played two games against Switzerland and split the series.

Travante Williams helped Portugal win the second game against Switzerland after missing the first one. He is the team’s main star and is averaging 22.5 points per game in qualifying.

Portugal Predicted Lineup: Williams - Ventura, Brito - Voigtso, Queiroz

Out: None

Manager: Mario Gomes

Montenegro Has Called Up Its Best Players

Montenegro will not have forgotten the heavy 83-62 loss to Portugal in the first meeting. The visitors will be looking for revenge, and Yogi Ferrell’s return to the national team gives them a better chance this time. Even without him, Montenegro should have been strong enough to reach the second round of qualifying. Compared with Romania, the visitors look much more convincing. They have a solid bench and a good defense. The only concern is the lack of match practice, as Montenegro decided not to play friendlies before facing Portugal.

When Ferrell was unavailable, Perry took on the lead role. The explosive point guard averaged 13 points and eight assists per game.

Montenegro Predicted Lineup: Ferrell - Popovic, Jovanovic - Hadzibegovic, Nikolic

Out: None

Manager: Andrej Zakelj

Portugal Got Revenge in the First Meeting

The first meeting ended with Portugal’s first-ever win in this matchup, 83-62.

Portugal vs Montenegro Prediction: Montenegro to Win

• Main prediction: It feels like the bookmakers are underrating Montenegro after its first-game loss to Portugal. Yes, the hosts can defend well, and they showed that during the group stage. But the visitors now have players who can help break down Portugal’s solid defense. The pick is Montenegro to win at 2.15.
• Total prediction: With Ferrell back in the squad, Montenegro should solve some of its offensive issues. The visitors had not been convincing on that end, scoring no more than 80 points in any of the first four qualifying rounds. But Portugal has just allowed 101 points to a modest Romania team, so Montenegro’s team total looks interesting. The bet is Montenegro over 75.5 team points at 1.87.
• High-odds prediction: Montenegro often starts games well, but it has slowed down after halftime. A short rotation was part of the problem, with starters forced to play close to 40 minutes. The visitors have a deeper roster now, so the value option is Montenegro to win the first quarter and the match at 2.90.