Lithuania vs Great Britain 2 July 2026 Prediction

European qualifying for the 2027 World Cup is back. Even Great Britain, the outsider in Group D, still has a chance to reach the next round. Lithuania can secure its place with a win in this matchup. Will it get the job done?

Lithuania Has Struggled Late in Games

Lithuania has already lost twice in the group stage, falling to Iceland (85-86) and Italy (81-82). In both games, the hosts of this matchup were favored by the bookmakers, but they failed to close out tight finishes. Matas Buzelis should help with that. He is set to make his senior national team debut after an excellent season with Chicago and should give Rimas Kurtinaitis’ team a needed boost. Lithuania needed fresh energy, as Sargiunas, Radzevicius, and Brazdeikis had carried much of the load so far.

Buzelis made clear progress in his second NBA season, averaging 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game.

Lithuania Predicted Lineup: Jakucionis - Sargiunas, Tubelis - Buzelis, Valanciunas

Out: None

Manager: Rimas Kurtinaitis

Great Britain Is Close to Losing Its Qualifying Chances

Great Britain does not have a player of Buzelis’ level right now. It also has not produced strong results in the first round of qualifying. The visitors enter Round 5 with only one win, a 90-84 result against Iceland. If Great Britain loses this match and Iceland beats Italy, the final game will no longer matter for the British team. It is hard to see this roster reaching the 2027 World Cup, as it looks like one of the weakest squads in qualifying on paper.

Quinn Ellis is the standout player for Great Britain. The Olimpia Milano guard is averaging 17.5 points per game in qualifying.

Great Britain Predicted Lineup: Ellis - Hesson, Yeboah - Wheatle, Belo

Out: None

Manager: Marc Steutel

Lithuania Dominates the Head-to-Head

Lithuania and Great Britain met twice last year. Lithuania won both games, 94-70 and 89-88.

Lithuania vs Great Britain Prediction: Lithuania Handicap -17.5

• Main prediction: Lithuania is unlikely to leave qualification for the next round in doubt. Kurtinaitis’ team had problems in the earlier qualifying windows, but now the hosts should have close to their best lineup available. Great Britain does not look like a difficult opponent, so the pick is Lithuania -17.5 handicap at 1.90.
• Total prediction: Neither team has been reliable defensively. Great Britain is tied with Iceland for the most points allowed in Group D, while Lithuania has conceded at least 82 points in every qualifying game. With both defenses looking vulnerable, this should be a high-scoring matchup. The bet is over 170.5 total points at 1.70.
• High-odds prediction: Lithuania is facing the weakest team in the group, but it could ease off again in the final 10 minutes. In the previous four qualifying rounds, the hosts lost the fourth quarter three times. The game may already be decided by then, so there is value in Great Britain to win the fourth quarter at 4.80.