England vs DR Congo 1 July 2026 Prediction

England finished first in its group, but the team’s pragmatic style has raised questions. Now the favorite faces one of the tournament’s biggest surprises. DR Congo, which played as Zaire in 1974, is back at the World Cup for the first time in 52 years and has reached the round of 32 right away. England has the stronger individual talent. DR Congo has structure, continuity, and a clear plan.

England Has a Hidden Balance Issue

England’s group win was not as convincing as expected. After an open 4-2 win over Croatia, England followed it with a flat 0-0 draw against Ghana and a routine 2-0 win over Panama. Thomas Tuchel’s pragmatic approach is getting results, but the attack still looks uneven. England scored six goals from 6.12 xG, but more than half of that total, 3.21 xG, came in the open match against Croatia. Defensively, the team has been very strong. Across three games, England allowed only 1.50 xGA. Only Spain has a better defensive number at this tournament.

Before the knockout stage, England has run into real defensive problems: injuries to James and Quansah have left the team without natural right backs. Tuchel will have to adjust the back line, either by moving center back Ezri Konsa to the right or using left-sided defender Djed Spence there. The cohesion of that reshaped defense matters not only for this match, but also with a possible round-of-16 game against Mexico or Ecuador ahead. The one positive update is that Declan Rice has returned to full team training.

Tuchel also has to improvise in attack, which makes England heavily dependent on its best players. So far, that has been enough. Against Panama, Jude Bellingham took on more creative responsibility and finished with a goal and an assist, while Harry Kane dropped deeper and scored his 11th World Cup goal, becoming England’s all-time top scorer at the tournament. Tuchel has been criticized for England’s slow ball progression through midfield, but Marcus Rashford’s inclusion in the starting lineup added needed vertical threat on the flank. England’s individual quality is still carrying the team, but a long spell at 0-0 would force the favorite to open up and put more pressure on a rebuilt defensive line.

DR Congo Is Built for a Physical Match

DR Congo’s main strength is tactical flexibility. The African side reached the knockout stage thanks to a confident front-foot performance against Uzbekistan, winning 3-1 and producing 2.17 xG. The more relevant matches for this matchup, however, were against Portugal (1-1) and Colombia (0-1), two opponents closer to England’s level. Against Portugal, Sebastien Desabre’s team gave up territory but limited the favorite’s attack. Even with 75% possession, Portugal created only 0.65 xG, while DR Congo produced 0.87 xG. Colombia also struggled for long spells against the compact block and scored only in the 76th minute from 0.98 xG. In the knockout stage, DR Congo will use the same approach: discipline, compact defending, and counterattacks.

DR Congo enters one of the biggest matches in its history with a fully available squad. Desabre also pointed to the team’s continuity as an important factor:

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“This core has been together for four years, and we have always believed in ourselves. We understand the strength of the opponent, but we will prepare in the best possible way.”

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That stability has given DR Congo strong on-field chemistry, and Ghana has already shown how uncomfortable England can be against this type of compact, physical style. Desabre’s players are capable of following a similar plan and turning the game into a tight contest.

DR Congo should return to a low block in its usual 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 shape. That setup should bring Steve Kapuadi back into the starting lineup as the third center back. There are unlikely to be many other changes. The only open question is in defensive midfield, where Noah Sadiki moved ahead of Ngal’ayel Mukau during the group stage. Sadiki will be important in playing through pressure, because DR Congo’s counterattacking game depends on the complementary forward pairing. Cedric Bakambu, at 182 cm, competes for long balls, holds play up, and occupies center backs. Yoane Wissa, at 176 cm, is more mobile and attacks space behind the defense. Wissa is in excellent form and already has three goals at this World Cup.

England vs DR Congo Predicted Lineup

England (4-2-3-1): Pickford - Konsa, Stones, Guehi, O’Riley - Anderson, Rice - Saka, Bellingham, Rashford - Kane

Out: James (injury), Quansah (doubtful)

Manager: Thomas Tuchel

DR Congo (5-4-1): Mpasi - Wan-Bissaka, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Kapuadi, Masuaku - Wissa, Moutoussamy, Sadiki, Sipenga - Bakambu

Out: None

Manager: Sebastien Desabre

England vs DR Congo Prediction: DR Congo Handicap +1.5

• Main prediction: England will face a low-block opponent for the third time at this tournament. Tuchel’s team has had clear problems breaking down compact defenses. The issue was already visible in a friendly against New Zealand, where England moved the ball slowly and won only 1-0. At the World Cup, Ghana closed the favorite down completely in a 0-0 draw and denied England space. DR Congo can defend in a similar way: it has already limited Portugal and Colombia and avoided heavy pressure for long stretches. Even with Declan Rice back, England’s positional attack can still look too controlled and predictable. If England scores first, Tuchel is more likely to protect the lead than chase a big win in a knockout match. The pick is DR Congo +1.5 handicap at 1.95, with 1-0 as the correct score at 5.50.
• Total prediction: Including friendlies, seven of England’s last nine matches have finished with no more than three total goals. The same trend has landed in 13 of DR Congo’s last 16 games. England’s 4-2 win over Croatia showed that Tuchel’s attack can produce in an open match, but Croatia gave England space. DR Congo will not do that. It should sit deep and keep the game narrow. England has struggled against that setup, and without the injured Reece James, the positional attack lacks some width and speed on the flank. The pick is under 2.5 goals at 1.92.