San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks 14 June 2026 Prediction

Is the World Cup the biggest sporting event of the summer? Yes and no. Basketball fans around the world would certainly argue, as they are watching one of the best Finals series in recent years. The Spurs trail 3-1, so they have no room for error in Game 5 at home. However, Knicks fans have also made their presence felt, reportedly buying almost half of the tickets for the upcoming matchup in San Antonio. Who will win: the young and ambitious Spurs or the experienced Knicks, who look ready to win now?

There Are Some Positives for San Antonio After the Trip to New York

The Spurs deservedly won Game 3 (115-111), but then somehow lost Game 4 despite leading by 29 points early in the third quarter (106-107). Even 13-plus points from key players Wembanyama, Harper, Fox, Vassell, and Castle were not enough. Charles Barkley was blunt in his criticism of the Texas team, calling it “the dumbest basketball team in the history of civilization.” With some caveats, Wemby and his teammates played both games at Madison Square Garden from a position of strength, even though there were doubts about whether they had enough energy and emotion left after the series against Oklahoma City and a 0-2 start against New York. The lack of big-game experience is showing, both among the players, especially Fox with his poor final possession in Game 4, and with manager Johnson, who did not use a timely timeout to set up the decisive possession or stop the Knicks’ comeback. Individually, Harper deserves credit, as this level of postseason play is impressive for a rookie.

Dylan has recorded at least 12 points and four rebounds in six straight games.

San Antonio Predicted Lineup: Fox — Castle, Vassell — Champagnie, Wembanyama

Will Not Play: Jones-Garcia (injured)

Manager: Mitch Johnson

The Knicks Are Making History Again

New York was in a frenzy after a memorable Game 4: Timothée Chalamet and Taylor Swift celebrated the win with fans, while locals celebrated across the city and police made multiple arrests. That was the reaction to a comeback from down 29 points, something that had never happened before in the Finals. Brunson (36 points, five rebounds, seven assists) and Anunoby (33 points, four rebounds, one assist) were again among the main heroes. They had to step up because Towns, a key player on both ends, played only 26 minutes due to early foul trouble (13 points on 4-of-5 shooting, 10 rebounds, two assists). Brown’s team is playing with huge confidence, having won 14 of its last 15 postseason games. As for Anunoby, he may be in the shadow of Jalen and Karl-Anthony, but he is having an excellent series against San Antonio.

OG has recorded at least 17 points and three rebounds in four straight games, including 28-plus points in Games 3 and 4.

New York Predicted Lineup: Brunson — Hart, Bridges — Anunoby, Towns

Will Not Play: —

Manager: Mike Brown

What to Know

• New York won the second quarter in three of four games in the series against San Antonio.
• The Spurs scored no more than 52 points in the second half in three of their last four games against the Knicks.
• This season, the Knicks have won five of seven head-to-head meetings against the Spurs.

Is New York’s Third Title Almost Decided?

In the previous round, the Spurs responded twice when they had no margin for error, winning Games 6 and 7 against Oklahoma City (118-91 and 111-103). But this situation is different, as only one team in Finals history has come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the title. That was Cleveland, led by LeBron James and supported by Kyrie Irving, against Golden State in the 2015/16 season. Another important detail is that the Knicks are highly motivated to win the third title in franchise history after championships in 1970 and 1973. They closed out their previous series on the first attempt against the Hawks (140-89), 76ers (144-114), and Cavaliers (130-93). They are ready to fight for the Larry O’Brien Trophy in Game 5 on the road in San Antonio.

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks Prediction: New York Handicap +5.5

• Main prediction: The young Spurs are dealing not only with the pressure of trying to come back from a 3-1 deficit, but also with the impact of a major collapse in Game 4. That is difficult to forget in just a couple of days. It is also notable that the Spurs have had a double-digit lead in every game against the Knicks, but won only once. That suggests Brown has been much better at making in-game adjustments. In the most important series of the season, three of the four best players are on the Knicks: Wemby cannot carry San Antonio alone against Brunson, Towns, and Anunoby. If New York fixes its recurring issue of having to come back after slow starts, San Antonio’s chances drop significantly. Another possible clutch finish is also more likely to favor the older and more experienced Brunson and his teammates. The pick is New York handicap (+5.5) at 1.90.
• Total prediction: In this Finals series, both teams have been stronger defensively, and neither the Spurs nor the Knicks is shooting above 44% from the field. The series has been physical and defense-first, with the total staying under 213 points in three of four games. Game 5 should follow the same trend given its importance for both teams. The pick to consider is under 216.5 points at 1.90.
• Long-odds prediction: In each of the last four games, the final margin did not exceed 10 points. In other words, another close finish is likely. A higher-risk option is New York to win by 1-10 points at 3.60.