Brazil vs Morocco 13 June 2026 Prediction

The main match of the opening round at the World Cup features the record title holders against the semifinalists from the previous tournament. There is also extra intrigue because their only head-to-head meeting in the 21st century, even though it was a friendly, ended in a 2-1 win for the African side in March 2023.

Brazil Is Improving

For the first time in history, Brazil finished so low in World Cup qualifying, taking fifth place and securing its spot only three rounds before the end after a narrow 1-0 win over Paraguay. However, since Carlo Ancelotti arrived, Brazil has gradually improved both in results and in overall performance. In its last six friendlies, Brazil has earned four wins and outperformed every opponent in expected goals, including strong teams such as France, Croatia, and Senegal.

We expect Brazil to use a 4-2-3-1 setup, which has worked best so far: nine goals against Panama (6-2) and Chile (3-0), with the team also creating its highest xG totals in those matches, 3.55 and 4.11 respectively. This shape should also suit Brazil’s veteran fullbacks. After Wesley’s injury, the right side of the defense became weaker, and 34-year-old Danilo is unlikely to offer much pace. In other positions, the absences are less damaging. With Éder Militão unavailable, Gabriel Magalhães has done well at center back: in four matches with him in the lineup, Brazil has conceded only one goal. The wide attacking positions also still look strong despite injuries to Rodrygo, Neymar, and Estêvão.

Brazil’s attacking wings are its biggest strength. Raphinha is still building form, but Vinícius enters the World Cup close to his best level, with three goal contributions in his last three national-team matches and five in his last six club games. Against Morocco, a team that often defends in a low block, much will depend on the individual quality of Brazil’s wide players.

Morocco Changed Managers Three Months Before the World Cup

Morocco won all eight of its World Cup qualifying matches. However, the level of opposition was not very high. The team then won the home Africa Cup of Nations only formally, two months after losing the final penalty shootout. During that tournament, Morocco did not beat a top-30 FIFA-ranked team in regulation time, drawing 0-0 with both Nigeria and Senegal.

In March, former youth-team manager Mohamed Ouahbi replaced Walid Regragui, and the senior team has played only five friendlies under him. Morocco has not faced an opponent at Brazil’s level, playing Ecuador (1-1), Paraguay (2-1), Burundi (5-0), Madagascar (4-0), and Norway (1-1), but it remained unbeaten and had the better xG in all five matches. Under the 49-year-old manager, Morocco has started pressing more actively and closing opponents down quickly after losing the ball. Against Brazil, though, we expect a compact defensive approach and counterattacks down the wings.

Morocco could have targeted Brazil’s vulnerable right side, but starting left midfielder Abde Ezzalzouli suffered a serious injury, while his replacement Soufiane Rahimi does not offer the same level. Morocco’s attacking threat will likely move to the right, where Achraf Hakimi has three goal contributions in his last three national-team matches and Brahim Díaz has six in 11. The main problem is the absence of leading center back Nayef Aguerd, who is expected to be replaced by Issa Diop, a player with limited international experience.

Brazil vs Morocco Predicted Lineup

Brazil (4-2-3-1): Alisson – Danilo, Gabriel, Marquinhos, Alex Sandro – B. Guimarães, Casemiro – Raphinha, Paquetá, Vinícius – Cunha

Will Not Play: Wesley, Neymar (both injured), Antony, João Pedro, Richarlison, Savinho, Thiago Silva, Rodrygo, Militão, Estêvão (all not in the squad)

Manager: Carlo Ancelotti

Morocco (4-2-3-1): Bounou – Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui – Amrabat, El Aynaoui – Díaz, El Khannouss, Rahimi – Saibari

Will Not Play: Aguerd, Ezzalzouli (both injured), En-Nesyri (not in the squad), Salah-Eddine (doubtful)

Manager: Mohamed Ouahbi

Referee: Slavko Vinčić (Slovenia)

The Slovenian referee worked at the previous World Cup, but he has not officiated Brazil or Morocco. In general, Vinčić tends to use a fairly lenient style in national-team matches. He has shown more than three cards in only four of his last 11 matches involving national teams. The average number of fouls called during that stretch is 23.36.

Brazil vs Morocco Prediction: Brazil to Win at 1.63

• Main prediction: Brazil prepared for Morocco by beating two teams from the top four at the last Africa Cup of Nations, Senegal (2-0) and Egypt (2-1). Brazil’s attacking quality, led by Vinícius and Raphinha, is much stronger than Morocco’s defensive resources, especially after Aguerd’s injury. Against Brazil’s pace in attack, Morocco’s reshaped central defense will have a difficult time staying compact in its own third. The experience gap between the managers also matters: Morocco’s current coach is still early in his senior international career, while Brazil is led by one of the best managers of the 21st century. Our pick is Brazil to win at 1.63. A higher-risk option is correct score 2-1 at 8.25.
• Total prediction: Brazil’s lowest xG figure over its last five matches was 1.98, and that came against France, so two goals are realistic here. However, Brazil’s defense does not look fully secure, especially in the fullback areas, where Ancelotti has to use experienced but slow players. Morocco has scored in each of its last five matches, so over 2.5 goals at 2.05 also looks like a strong betting option.