Netherlands vs Japan 14 June 2026 Prediction

The Netherlands has an excellent record in World Cup group stages. The team has advanced from the group at every World Cup it has played in and has not lost a group-stage match at the tournament for 32 years. The Oranje open their 2026 World Cup against a dangerous Japan side. Can the Netherlands keep that trend going?

The Main Concern Is Depay’s Form

The Netherlands fought for its World Cup place against Poland, Finland, Malta, and Lithuania. Against a solid Poland team, the Dutch drew twice (1-1, 1-1), but they won the other six matches. In qualifying, the Netherlands averaged 3.38 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per match. Gakpo and his teammates scored more than they created, with an average xG of 2.33, but the strong defensive numbers were not based on luck. In seven of eight matches, the xGA figure was below one. The average was only 0.53.

As part of final World Cup preparation, the Netherlands played four friendlies in 2026. In the spring, the team faced Norway (2-1) and Ecuador (1-1), then played Algeria (0-1) and Uzbekistan (2-1) during its current camp in the United States. We will not judge the team too harshly for difficult matches against lower-level opponents. First, acclimatization was a factor. Second, the main issue was finishing. In expected goals, the Oranje were clearly better than Algeria (2.19 to 0.48) and especially Uzbekistan (4.62 to 0.98).

Koeman has one major concern before the opening round: starting goalkeeper Verbruggen is questionable because of a severe thigh bruise. He played six World Cup qualifying matches and kept three clean sheets. The first candidate to replace him is Flekken of Bayer, who played only two qualifying matches. Jurriën Timber has also not recovered in time, but that mainly affects squad depth, as Dumfries is available and Geertruida was called up as cover. A bigger concern is the form of veteran Memphis Depay, who had eight goals and four assists in eight World Cup qualifying matches and remains very important to Koeman, especially with another creative player, Xavi Simons, also unavailable. Because of injury, Depay has played only three matches for Corinthians over the past few months and received just 45 minutes during camp. Summerville should join Malen and Gakpo in the front three, but that does not provide the same level of creativity.

Japan Is Not Afraid of Favorites

Japan is currently at the top of Asian soccer. Across two qualifying stages, the team played 16 matches, earning 13 wins, two draws, and one loss to Australia (0-1). The level of opposition was not very high, but the numbers were still strong. Japan averaged 3.38 goals scored and only 0.19 goals conceded, keeping 13 clean sheets. The average xGA also underlines the defensive quality at just 0.29. In attack, though, Japan was somewhat efficient above expectation, with average xG at 1.95 compared to 3.38 goals scored.

Japan played a full set of friendlies as part of its World Cup preparation. The most notable results include a 3-2 win over Brazil and a 1-0 win over England, with the latter match played this past spring. That shows Japan is comfortable playing as the second team against major opponents. This matters against a Netherlands side that wants to control possession. It is also worth noting how detailed Japan’s preparation has been: the coaching staff used heat chambers in training to prepare for humid and hot conditions.

Japan traditionally has a strong squad with players from the Bundesliga, Premier League, La Liga, and other competitive leagues. However, the team suffered a major setback during camp, as captain and starting defensive midfielder Wataru Endo of Liverpool, who played 11 World Cup qualifying matches, was injured. Together with Tanaka, he was a key part of Japan’s pressing structure. Kaishu Sano of Mainz is expected to start in his place, but the midfield chemistry will suffer. There are no other major absences, and the entire attacking group enters the tournament in strong form. Forward Ayase Ueda scored 25 goals in 31 Eredivisie matches and had eight goals and one assist in nine World Cup qualifying matches. Japan’s fast wide players, Doan, Kubo, and Nakamura, are also in good shape after combining for nine goals and 12 assists in qualifying.

Netherlands vs Japan Predicted Lineup

Netherlands (4-3-3): Flekken – Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven – Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders – Summerville, Malen, Gakpo

Will Not Play: Timber, De Ligt (both not in the squad), Verbruggen (doubtful)

Manager: Ronald Koeman

Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki – Tomiyasu, Ito, Itakura – Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura – Kubo, Junya Ito – Ueda

Will Not Play: Endo (not in the squad)

Manager: Hajime Moriyasu

Netherlands vs Japan Prediction: Japan Double Chance at 1.88

• Main prediction: Japan knows how to play as the second team against possession-heavy opponents, as it showed in recent friendlies against England and Brazil, as well as at the previous World Cup. The Netherlands should have more of the ball, but it will likely run into a compact low block, and breaking that down will be difficult without Depay at full fitness. In World Cup qualifying, the Oranje had similar problems against a defensive Poland side, drawing both matches 1-1. The pre-World Cup matches against Algeria and Uzbekistan also raised some concerns. The heat in Texas could be another important factor. Japan prepared specifically for humid conditions with heat chambers, while the heavier European side may find it difficult to maintain intensity for the full 90 minutes. Endo’s absence is a clear issue, but Moriyasu has enough resources to adjust. Our pick is Japan Double Chance at 1.88.
• Goals prediction: Japan has scored in each of its last seven friendlies, including matches against England and Brazil. As noted above, Moriyasu’s attacking group enters the tournament in good form. Japan’s fast wide players should find space behind the Netherlands’ high defensive line. At the same time, the Netherlands should also score, having failed to do so only once in its last 15 matches across all competitions. Endo’s absence in Japan’s midfield should also have some impact. The pick is both teams to score — yes at 1.78.