Benfica Lisbon vs Alverca 2 November 2026 Prediction

Benfica have scored 26 goals in nine Primeira Liga games, the most in the league. Alverca concede nearly two goals per away game and will be without a starting center back for their trip to Lisbon.

Benfica's Attack Leads the League

Benfica have won five straight games in all competitions, scoring 16 goals. Manager Marco Silva's side average 2.89 goals per league game, and more than three per game when European and cup matches are included. They have scored at least twice in all four league home games. In their most recent one, a 2-0 win over Vitória Guimarães, Benfica generated 2.09 xG and allowed just 0.65.

Benfica beat Gil Vicente 4-1 in the League Cup during the week. Pavlidis was rested, while several other regular starters played limited minutes. The busy schedule should therefore have little effect on their attack. Most of their absences are in midfield: Barreiro and Barrenechea remain out, but Palhinha and Aursnes are available. Pavlidis, Prestianni and Sudakov are also available in attack.

Alverca Will Be Without a Starting Center Back

Alverca have conceded 13 goals in nine league games, including seven in four away games. Manager Sérgio Ferreira's side lost by two goals at both Porto (2-0) and Sporting (3-1). Their away wins over Nacional (3-1) and Famalicão (4-1) came against opponents struggling for form. Alverca scored freely in those games but have been less effective against the league's strongest teams.

Basseya, who has started eight of Alverca's ten competitive games, is suspended. The center back was sent off in the sixth minute of the 1-0 loss to Arouca. Bojang is the likely replacement. Vidigal is also suspended, and Meupiyou's injury further limits the defensive options. Alverca will face the league's highest-scoring team with a reshuffled back line.

Benfica vs Alverca Predicted Lineup

Benfica (4-2-3-1): Soares, Bah, Araújo, Lenglet, Dahl, Palhinha, Aursnes, Rafa, Sudakov, Prestianni, Pavlidis

Unavailable: Barreiro, Barrenechea, Banjaki (all injured)

Manager: Marco Silva

Alverca (3-4-3): Mendes, Bojang, Gomes, James, Spencer, Ryan Lucas, Gui, Chissumba, Chiquinho, Camara, Figueiredo

Unavailable: Abdoulaye, Meupiyou, Martínez, Raveyre (all injured); Basseya, Vidigal (both suspended)

Manager: Sérgio Ferreira

Referee: Bruno Costa

Across 43 Primeira Liga games over the past four seasons, Costa has called an average of 27.5 fouls and shown just over four yellow cards per game. He refereed Benfica vs Alverca at the Estádio da Luz in February. Benfica won 2-1 through an 86th-minute goal from Anísio Cabral.

Benfica vs Alverca Prediction: Benfica Handicap -2.5

Main prediction: Benfica score nearly three goals per Primeira Liga game and have much stronger attacking options. Alverca concede 1.75 goals per away game and must now adjust their defense without Basseya. Even with their usual center backs, they lost by two goals at Porto and Sporting. The pick is Benfica -2.5 at odds of 2.31. We estimate a 50% chance of success, making odds above 2.00 worth considering.

Goals prediction: Benfica have conceded four goals in four league home games but kept a clean sheet against Vitória Guimarães last time out. Seven of Alverca's eight away goals came against Nacional and Famalicão. They scored just once across their trips to Porto and Sporting. The pick is Alverca under 0.5 team goals at odds of 1.75. We estimate a 65% chance of success, making odds above 1.54 worth considering.