Sassuolo Calcio vs Fiorentina 2 November 2026 Prediction

For the second straight year, Fiorentina are in the relegation zone after nine Serie A rounds. A win over Sassuolo would take them out of it, but they have lost four of their last five away games against Sassuolo.

Defensive Problems for Sassuolo

Alberto Aquilani made a solid start at Sassuolo, including a win over Juventus in the fourth round. Results have declined since the international break, though. Sassuolo took just one point from four October matches and slipped into the bottom half of the table. Their defense is allowing an average of 1.78 xGA per game. They conceded six against Lazio last time out, losing 6-2. Thorstvedt’s dismissal was not the main cause: Sassuolo were already three goals down after 16 minutes.

Domenico Berardi, Sebastiano Esposito, and Armand Laurienté give Sassuolo plenty of attacking quality. The defense has been less convincing, while neither Arijanet Murić nor Stefano Turati has provided reliable goalkeeping.

Vanoli Has Not Turned Things Around

Fiorentina spent more in the summer transfer window than in any previous window under the Commisso family, yet they are near the bottom of the table again. Paolo Vanoli replaced Fabio Grosso in the first managerial change of this Serie A season, but the improvement was brief. Fiorentina have the same record as Sassuolo over the last four rounds: three losses and one draw.

Right back Álex Jiménez has been an unexpected source of offense for Fiorentina, with two goals and two assists. He has also struggled defensively, as has the rest of the team. Only Monza and Sassuolo have conceded more goals. Fiorentina are also missing the injured Arthur Atta in midfield. Nicolò Fagioli had a difficult first half against Atalanta last round, making several costly mistakes in the 2-2 draw. His replacement, Christ Oulai, looked more dependable, so we expect Oulai to start alongside Cher Ndour and Marco Brescianini at Mapei Stadium.

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineup

Sassuolo (4-3-3): Murić, Cinquegrano, Ćaleta-Car, Odenthal, Doig, Adžić, Matić, Bakola, Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté

Unavailable: Boloca, Pieragnolo, I. Koné, Leysen, Y. Paz (injured); Thorstvedt (suspended)

Manager: Alberto Aquilani

Fiorentina (4-3-3): De Gea, Jiménez, Drăgușin, Vieri, João Mário, Ndour, Oulai, Brescianini, Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Gonçalves

Unavailable: Parisi, Atta, Pongračić (injured); Ranieri (doubtful)

Manager: Paolo Vanoli

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction: Draw at 3.70

Main pick: Both teams are struggling defensively but have players capable of creating chances. Fiorentina have looked slightly better in attack, while Sassuolo’s home record helps balance the matchup: they have lost only once in six games at Mapei Stadium in the 2026-27 season. Neither side has won in the last five Serie A rounds, and their most recent meeting in April ended 0-0. The pick is a draw at 3.70.

Total goals pick: This meeting could have more goals than the last one. Matches involving Sassuolo and Fiorentina rank among Serie A’s six highest-scoring this season. Fiorentina’s games average 3.56 goals, while Sassuolo’s average 4.0. That makes over 3.5 goals at 2.39 worth considering.