Bayer Leverkusen vs Leipzig 2 May 2026 Prediction

This is one of the key matches of the round and likely Bayer Leverkusen’s last real chance to stay in the top-four race. In the first meeting this season, Leverkusen earned one of their most convincing wins in this matchup, beating Leipzig 3-1. Since then, however, they have beaten only one opponent of a similar level.

Leipzig, on the other hand, have found strong form before the final stretch. If they win here, they will likely secure a Champions League place for next season.

Bayer Leverkusen Are Inconsistent

Bayer Leverkusen have declined in the second half of the season, both in results and overall level of play. In 2026, they have taken only 26 points, which ranks sixth in the league over that stretch. Their goal difference during that period is also modest at 29-22.

Their matches have often been hard to read. They can play above their usual level, as they did against Bayern Munich (1-1) and Borussia Dortmund (1-0), but then lose to Augsburg (1-2) despite taking 35 shots. Against Cologne (2-1), the opposite happened. Leverkusen played poorly, allowed 3.04 expected goals against, but still won.

In the North Rhine derby, Bayer scored with two of their three shots on target, which was more of an exception than a trend. Even including that match, they have scored 4.54 fewer goals than expected over the last 10 rounds. Only one Bundesliga team has underperformed its xG by more in that span.

Leipzig Are Close to Their Best Level

Leipzig have already moved past their unstable spell. This spring, they have won seven of their last eight matches. Their only loss came against Stuttgart (0-1), one of their direct rivals, but they responded strongly. After that, they beat Hoffenheim 5-0 and Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1, winning away to Frankfurt for the first time.

Ole Werner’s team also creates more than it scores, but that has been balanced by excellent defensive play. Since February, Leipzig have allowed fewer chances than any other team in the league and have conceded only 11 goals across their last 11 matches. That is especially impressive given their recent defensive injury issues.

What You Need to Know

• Bayer Leverkusen have not beaten a team above them in the table at home this season.
• Leipzig have conceded in seven straight away league matches.
• Both teams have scored and the total has gone over 3.5 goals in the last five head-to-head meetings.

Predicted Lineup: Bayer Leverkusen vs Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Blaswich – Andrich, Quansah, Tapsoba – Arthur, Palacios, Garcia, Grimaldo – Maza, Tella – Schick

Out: Terrier (injured), Flekken, Vazquez, Kofane (all questionable)

Manager: Kasper Hjulmand

Leipzig (4-3-3): Vandevoordt – Baku, Orban, Seiwald, Finkgrafe – Ouedraogo, Schlager, Baumgartner – Diomande, Romulo, Nusa

Out: Zingerle, Banzuzi, Sane (all injured), Lukeba, Raum (both questionable)

Manager: Ole Werner

Referee

Tobias Welz

Welz has been the strictest referee of the season so far for yellow cards and fouls. Bayer Leverkusen have averaged three yellow cards across their last three matches with him in charge. Leipzig have had him only once since April 2024, receiving three yellow cards in that match.

• 19 matches officiated in all competitions this season
• Average of 4.68 yellow cards and 23.74 fouls per match
• Penalties awarded in 2 matches (10.5%)
• Red cards shown in 2 matches (10.5%)

Best Bet: Leipzig to Win at 3.08

Main pick: The stronger case is with the visitors. Leipzig have been winning consistently this spring, while Bayer Leverkusen have won only four of their last 11 matches in all competitions, and some of those wins did not fully match the run of play. Both teams have injury concerns, but Leipzig have dealt with theirs better based on recent results. It is also worth noting that Leverkusen have lost at home to every top-four opponent they have faced this season. Leipzig to win at 3.08 is the best option.

Total pick: This matchup often produces goals, and the first meeting this season followed that trend. Over the last 10 rounds, Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 1.9 goals per match, while Leipzig have averaged 2.2. A draw would not help either side much, so an open game is likely. Over 3.5 goals at 1.91 is worth considering.

Correct score pick: Bayer Leverkusen have scored in every home league match this season, but they continue to have issues with finishing. Leipzig, meanwhile, have posted the best xGA over a solid stretch of matches. Leverkusen have conceded three goals in three of their last seven league matches, while Leipzig have scored three away from home only once this season. Still, given the matchup and form, the correct score pick is 1-3 at 19.00.