Atalanta vs Genoa 2 May 2026 Prediction

Since Daniele De Rossi became Genoa manager, the Rossoblu have faced no team more often than Atalanta. This will be the third meeting between the sides in five months.

So far, this matchup has not gone well for Genoa: two losses and no goals scored. Atalanta’s overall winning streak against the Ligurian club has now reached six matches.

Home Form Can Help Atalanta Respond

Atalanta’s Coppa Italia semifinal exit took a lot out of the team, both physically and mentally, and Cagliari took advantage in the previous round. The Sardinian side started both halves aggressively, got the goals they needed, and beat Atalanta 3-2. The Champions League is no longer a realistic target for the Nerazzurri, and even Europa League qualification is now uncertain.

Still, this difficult spell may not last long. Atalanta continue to create chances, especially at home. In only one of their last nine Serie A matches at New Balance Arena have they failed to finish with the better expected goals number.

Genoa Have Struggled Against Top Teams

Genoa are safe from relegation, but they do not have the resources to compete for a European place. Even so, the Rossoblu have tried to play more attacking soccer for their fans. Under Daniele De Rossi, they have averaged 1.42 goals per match, the seventh-best mark in Serie A over the last 24 rounds.

That style has not worked well against stronger opponents. Genoa have lost four of their last five matches against teams currently in the top six. Their away record is also not strong, with only two road wins in 2026, both against teams from the relegation zone.

Predicted Lineup: Atalanta vs Genoa

Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi – Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac – Bellanova, Ederson, De Roon, Zappacosta – De Ketelaere, Raspadori – Scamacca

Out: Rossi, Hien, Bernasconi (all injured)

Manager: Raffaele Palladino

Genoa (3-5-2): Baylo – Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vazquez – Ellertsson, Malinovskyi, Frendrup, Messias, Sabelli – Vitinha, Colombo

Out: Ekuban, Baldanzi (both injured)

Manager: Daniele De Rossi

Referee

Ivano Pezzuto

Pezzuto has worked only one Serie A match since 2023. It is also worth noting that he has shown more than three yellow cards in only two of his last six official matches.

• 19 matches officiated in the 2025/26 season
• Average of 3.58 yellow cards and 30.89 fouls per match
• 1 penalty awarded (5%)
• 4 red cards shown (21%)

Stats and Trends

Atalanta have won the corner count in six of their last eight home matches in all competitions. Genoa have won the corner count only once away from home under De Rossi. Atalanta to win the corner count looks like the clear option.

Atalanta have received exactly one yellow card in seven straight home matches, and Genoa have also received exactly one yellow card in each of their last four away games. Under 2.5 total yellow cards is worth considering.

Best Bet: Atalanta -1.5 at 2.53

Main pick: Atalanta have become a strong home team this year and are deserved favorites against a mid-table Genoa side with limited motivation. Even in the home loss to Juventus, Atalanta created far more chances than Italy’s most decorated club. In their other seven Serie A home matches over the last four months, Palladino’s team have taken 19 of a possible 21 points. Genoa, meanwhile, have lost each of their last three away matches against top-10 opponents. Atalanta -1.5 at 2.53 is the best option.

Goals pick: De Rossi’s team are not built to sit deep for long periods, which should create space for a more open match. Genoa have scored four goals across their last three away matches, while Atalanta have seen both teams score in each of their last three official games. Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.90 is worth considering.

Correct score pick: Still, expecting more than one Genoa goal looks risky. Atalanta have conceded only 0.75 goals per home league match this season, while Genoa average 1.18 goals away from home. The correct score pick is 3-1 at 12.75.