Metz vs Monaco 2 May 2026 Prediction

Monaco are at risk of missing out on the Champions League. Three straight setbacks have left them six points behind the top four.

Still, Sebastien Pocognoli’s team still have a chance to get back into that race. Their next match is against Metz, the weakest team in Ligue 1 this season. Monaco need to take full advantage of this matchup.

Metz Are Close to Relegation

For the first time this season, Metz scored four goals in one match. Even that level of attacking production was not enough to earn their first win since Round 12. In the 4-4 draw with Le Havre, Benoit Tavenot’s team had to come from behind several times.

After that draw, Metz kept only a very small chance of staying in Ligue 1. With three rounds left, they need to erase a nine-point gap to 16th-placed Auxerre and also make up a 24-goal difference. For a team that has not won a Ligue 1 match in almost six months, that is not realistic.

Monaco Are Struggling Defensively Again

After Monaco won seven straight league matches, the next three games against teams from the bottom half looked manageable. Instead, Pocognoli’s side took only two points from matches against Paris (1-4), Auxerre (2-2), and Toulouse (2-2). In the last round, Monaco dropped points after taking the lead for only the second time this season.

The main issue has been the defense. Across the last three rounds, Monaco conceded eight goals. In the previous 10 matches, they had allowed only six. Given how little time is left in the season, it is unlikely that Pocognoli will fully fix those defensive issues. Monaco will likely need to rely on their attack.

What You Need to Know

• Monaco have won the second half in seven of their last nine league matches.
• Metz have conceded at least three goals in 17 of their 31 league matches (55%).
• Monaco lead Europe’s top five leagues in goals scored by substitutes, with 16.

Predicted Lineup: Metz vs Monaco

Metz (3-5-2): Sy – Yegbe, Mboula, S. Sane – Sarr, Toure, Deminguet, Gbamin, Tsitaishvili – Hein, Kvilitaia

Out: Ballo-Toure, Diallo, Melières, Munongo, Traore (all injured)

Manager: Benoit Tavenot

Monaco (3-4-2-1): Hradecky – Zakaria, Faes, Kehrer – Teze, Camara, Coulibaly, Adingra – Akliouche, Golovin – Balogun

Out: Minamino, Caio Henrique, Ouattara, Salisu, Vanderson, Idumbo, Brunner (all injured), Diatta (questionable)

Manager: Sebastien Pocognoli

Referee

Ruddy Buquet

Buquet is one of the more lenient referees in Ligue 1. In 10 of his 15 matches this season, he showed no more than three yellow cards. He also does not often use stricter disciplinary sanctions.

• 15 Ligue 1 matches officiated in the 2025/26 season
• Average of 2.9 yellow cards and 23.7 fouls per match
• 2 red cards shown (13%)
• 3 penalties awarded (20%)

Best Bet: Monaco -1.5 at 1.99

Main pick: Metz have not been a defensive team this season, and with relegation almost certain, they are unlikely to sit deep for the full match. That should help Monaco, because the visitors should find space in the attacking third. Monaco also have the edge in this matchup, winning eight straight head-to-head meetings including one on penalties. Pocognoli’s team need three points to stay in the Champions League race, so motivation should not be an issue. Monaco -1.5 at 1.99 is the best option.

Total pick: Recent meetings between Metz and Monaco have been very high-scoring. The last five head-to-head matches produced 24 total goals. Metz should also try to give their home fans something positive in the final rounds, while Monaco need to improve their goal difference in case they finish level on points with a rival. Over 3.5 goals at 1.97 is worth considering.

Correct score pick: Metz have scored against Monaco in each of the last four meetings. However, they have also conceded at least three goals in more than half of their league matches this season. Monaco scored five goals in each of the last two head-to-head games, so scoring at least three here is realistic. The correct score pick is 1-3 at 10.00.