Leeds United vs Burnley 1 May 2026 Prediction

Leeds missed a chance to fight for a trophy after a narrow and not fully deserved 1-0 loss to Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinal. Still, there is no time to dwell on it. The team needs to finish the season strongly and officially secure its Premier League status for next year.

The next match gives Leeds a very good opportunity to take three points. Burnley failed to stay in the Premier League and has already been officially relegated to the Championship. The question is whether this will be a straightforward home win for the favorite.

Leeds: Good Football, Few Goals

Leeds looked more dangerous than Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinal, but as often happens with the Peacocks, they failed to convert their chances. Daniel Farke’s team produced 0.84 xG, while Chelsea managed only 0.39 xG but turned that limited attacking output into Enzo Fernandez’s winning goal.

Finishing remains the main issue for Leeds. Over the last 10 matches, in addition to the Chelsea game, the team also failed to score against Brentford (0-0), Crystal Palace (0-0), Sunderland (0-1), and Manchester City (0-1). In three of those four matches, Leeds still generated at least 1.0 xG, so the problem is not chance creation but conversion.

Burnley: Heading Back Down

Burnley has once again confirmed its status as a yo-yo club and is heading back to the Championship. With 22 defeats in 34 rounds, only four wins, and the worst defense in the league with 68 goals conceded, the Clarets never had a realistic chance of staying up. The gap to 17th place is now close to double digits in practical terms: Burnley has 20 points, while West Ham has 36.

Across the season, Burnley offered little beyond effort and commitment. In xG and xGA, the Clarets are, along with Wolverhampton, among the weakest teams in the league. Still, they did have some respectable results against stronger opponents, including 1-1 draws with Chelsea and Liverpool, plus 2-2 draws against Tottenham and Manchester United.

Leeds vs Burnley Predicted Lineup

Leeds (3-4-2-1): Darlow – Justin, Bijol, Struijk – Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson – Aaronson, Okafor – Calvert-Lewin

Out: Gruev (injury)

Manager: Daniel Farke

Burnley (4-2-3-1): Dubravka – Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman – Laurent, Ward-Prowse – Edwards, Ugochukwu, Anthony – Flemming

Out: Beyer, Cullen, Roberts (all injured), Amdouni, Mejbri (both questionable)

Manager: Scott Parker

Referee: Thomas Bramall

Bramall ranks just inside the top six strictest referees in the Premier League this season. He has shown at least four yellow cards in three of five Leeds matches he has handled. In Burnley games, however, he has been less card-heavy, going over three yellow cards in only one of five.

In the 2025/26 Premier League season, he has officiated 20 matches.

Average cards: 4.1 yellows per game; average fouls: 21.6 per game.

He has awarded six penalties (30%).

He has sent players off twice (20%).

Stats and Trends

Leeds averages 5.33 corners per home match. Burnley is much less active away from home, averaging 3.76 corners. The hosts should have a clear edge in corner kicks.

Both teams average around 1.59 yellow cards per game and rank among the five most disciplined teams in the league. A high-card game looks unlikely.

Leeds vs Burnley Prediction: Leeds -1.5 at 2.23

Main pick: Burnley pulled off a surprise 2-0 win in the first meeting this season, but even then the match was heavily shaped by Leeds’ finishing problems. The Peacocks won the xG battle 2.62 to 0.46. Since then, the balance has moved even further toward Farke’s team, and this time Leeds has home-field advantage. It is a strong spot for revenge. Burnley has also stopped offering much resistance lately, losing 3-1 to Fulham, 2-0 to Brighton, and 4-1 to Nottingham Forest. The 1-0 loss to Manchester City looked respectable on the scoreboard, but City wasted 3.36 xG. Leeds -1.5 at 2.23 is the preferred pick.

Total pick: Leeds should play its usual attacking style against one of the weakest teams in the league. That approach has helped over 2.5 goals land in four of the Peacocks’ last five matches. Burnley has little reason to sit deep and protect a result now that relegation is confirmed. The Clarets can play without pressure, but they continue to concede heavily. Over 2.5 at 1.75 is a solid option.

Correct score pick: Against teams clearly below them in quality, Leeds has shown it can cover the total almost by itself, including 3-0 wins over Wolverhampton and Norwich. Burnley’s away defense has been poor, conceding 2.47 goals per game on average. Still, Scott Parker’s team usually creates enough for at least one goal, averaging 1.12 xG. The best correct-score option is 3-1 at 11.00.