Netherlands vs Algeria 3 June 2026 Prediction

The final stage of World Cup preparation is underway. The Netherlands has tested itself against opponents from Europe and South America, and now comes an African test. Algeria comes to Rotterdam having suffered only two regulation-time losses since last summer. Is that enough reason to expect a surprise?

Things Are Not Fully Smooth for the Netherlands

The Oranje will not have any easy opponents in the World Cup group stage, so Ronald Koeman has selected one solid opponent from four different continents for the team’s friendlies. In the spring, the team beat Norway at home (2-1), although Norway was without its main star Erling Haaland, and then had a difficult match against Ecuador (1-1), producing only two shots. The Dutch played with 10 men from the 12th minute, but that is still not a strong excuse for a team of this level.

The quality of the squad allows the Netherlands to convert chances at a high rate: in qualifying, the team generated 18.98 xG and scored 27 goals. On the other hand, much of that statistical profile was built against opponents from the second hundred of the FIFA rankings. Against Poland, the Netherlands got exactly what it deserved: two goals from 2.05 xG across two 1-1 draws. As we can see, against a more organized and higher-quality opponent, the team created far fewer chances.

There are almost no surprises in the squad. The only unexpected decision was the late omission of Jeremie Frimpong, caused by injuries and lost competition at Liverpool. The main personnel issue is the injury to Xavi Simons. The midfielder plays an important role in chance creation and sometimes in finishing attacks as well. It is worth noting that Memphis Depay, the all-time leading scorer for the national team, is available. Koeman said in the press that the forward will use the next two friendlies to improve his match fitness, so he should definitely get minutes.

Algeria Is Not Overachieving

Algeria landed in an easy World Cup qualifying group and did not disappoint, taking 25 points from a possible 30. The Africa Cup of Nations gave a clearer picture. There, the Greens also reached the quarterfinals, where they lost comfortably to the first opponent of comparable level, Nigeria (0-2). Algeria was fortunate the score was not worse, as it produced only 0.13 xG while allowing 3.36 xG.

Among its friendlies, the match against Uruguay (0-0) stands out. Algeria again created very little in attack, but defended much better, allowing 0.98 xGA. The switch to a system with three center backs worked well. Vladimir Petkovic will likely use that setup against opponents with superior individual quality.

Baghdad Bounedjah was left out of the squad, even though only Riyad Mahrez (38) has scored more goals for the national team among the current player pool than Bounedjah (35). He has been pushed out by younger forwards based at European clubs. Overall, the squad is mostly made up of Europe-based players, so most of them will not have to deal with a long intercontinental flight, which is important. The main attacking outlets remain Amine Gouiri and Mohamed Amoura. Gouiri missed a significant part of the season because of injuries, but still finished among Marseille’s top three scorers with eight goals. Amoura, meanwhile, had a poor end to the season and lost his place in Wolfsburg’s lineup. Goalkeeper Anthony Mandrea’s injury does not change much, as Luca Zidane has been preferred since the Africa Cup of Nations.

Netherlands vs Algeria Predicted Lineup

Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen – Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven – Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders – Malen, Depay, Gakpo

Will not play: De Ligt, De Vrij, Schouten, Simons (all injured), Frimpong (not called up), J. Timber (doubtful)

Manager: Ronald Koeman

Algeria (3-4-2-1): Zidane – Belaid, Mandi, Bensebaini – Belgali, Bentaleb, Chaibi, Ait-Nouri – Mahrez, Maza – Gouiri

Will not play: Mandrea (injury), Abdelli, Bakrar, Berkane, Bounedjah (all not called up)

Manager: Vladimir Petkovic

Referee: Jakob Semler (Austria)

The referee only began working in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2023, so he has no experience in major international matches. This will also be his first senior national-team match. In general, Semler likes to award penalties and sets a low foul threshold, but he is relatively conservative with cards.

• Officiated 24 matches in the 2025/26 season
• Averaged 3.63 yellow cards and 27.39 fouls per match
• Awarded penalties in 8 matches (33.3%)
• Sent off a player in 4 matches (16.7%)

Netherlands vs Algeria Prediction: Algeria (+1.5) Handicap at 1.69

• Main prediction: Both teams have had strong long-term stretches: the hosts have not lost in regulation time since October 2024, while the visitors have lost only twice over the same period. At the same time, neither side has been especially convincing against equal or stronger opponents. Algeria is not on the same level as the Netherlands, and the Dutch face top national teams more often. However, the Oranje twice failed to beat Poland in qualifying (1-1, 1-1), even though Poland is lower in the FIFA rankings (35th) than Algeria (28th). Their weak performance in the recent friendly against Ecuador (1-1) is also a concern. That said, in their final home match before leaving for the World Cup, the Netherlands should show more desire to win. Algeria has three relevant results from the past year: against Sweden (3-4) and Uruguay (0-0) in friendlies, and against Nigeria (0-2) at the Africa Cup of Nations. Only against Nigeria did Petkovic’s team look clearly worse than the opponent. The appealing option is Algeria (+1.5) handicap at 1.69, along with correct score 2-1 at 7.30.
• Goals prediction: The hosts have seen both teams score in six straight matches against national teams ranked inside the top 40. Algeria’s sample is smaller, but it has scored against such opponents in two of four cases. The matches in which it failed to score came against Uruguay and Nigeria, both of which play more cautiously than the Netherlands. The pick is both teams to score — yes at 2.02.