Sweden vs Tunisia 15 June 2026 Prediction

Tunisia did not concede a single goal in World Cup qualifying. However, there is one important detail: every opponent in its group was outside the top 100 of the FIFA rankings. Now the African side faces one of the most expensive attacking pairs in world soccer: Gyökeres and Isak.

Sweden Took Its Second Chance

The Blue and Yellow completely failed in World Cup qualifying, earning only two points in a group with Slovenia, Kosovo, and Switzerland, where they were expected to fight for first place. However, thanks to a strong Nations League campaign, Sweden received a playoff spot. It is important to note that the team was no longer coached by Jon Dahl Tomasson, but by Graham Potter. The English manager made a sharp shift toward counterattacking soccer, with average possession dropping to 32.5% in the playoffs from 56.2% in the group stage, which surprised Ukraine (3-1) and Poland (3-2). Against Tunisia, Sweden will likely have to play on the front foot more often.

Under the new manager, Sweden has again looked convincing in attack. Before Potter, the team averaged 1.08 expected goals in qualifying and scored only 0.5 goals per match. In its last four matches under him, those numbers increased to 1.7 xG and 1.83 goals scored. That includes friendlies against Norway (1-3) and Greece (2-2), where the focus was mainly on physical preparation.

Alexander Isak’s form is a concern, as he spent half the season injured. However, Potter still trusts him:

“Alex had a difficult period at club level because of injuries, but the player himself has not changed. His quality is still there — he remains a top player at world level,” the manager said.

The staff is counting on his partnership with Viktor Gyökeres, who has scored five goals in his last three matches for Sweden. Because of injuries to Emil Krafth and Emil Holm, the right wing-back position looks vulnerable. In recent months, Daniel Svensson, a natural left back, 190-centimeter Herman Johansson, and the more attack-minded Alexander Bernhardsson have all been tested there. Any of them could start.

Tunisia Failed Its Test Against Strong Opponents

Tunisia had no problems in qualifying, taking 28 of a possible 30 points and not conceding a single goal. That is not surprising, as the team did not face strong competition. The Africa Cup of Nations was much less convincing: the Eagles of Carthage lost to Nigeria (2-3) in the group stage and deservedly dropped points against Tanzania (1-1), which is ranked 112th by FIFA. In the playoffs, the team lost to Mali on penalties after a 1-1 draw in regulation, despite playing almost 90 minutes with a man advantage.

The federation was not satisfied with that, so Tunisia prepared for the World Cup under a new manager, Sabri Lamouchi. In the spring, Tunisia played two friendlies in Toronto, against Haiti (1-0) and Canada (0-0). The defense looked strong and did not allow either opponent to reach even 1.00 xG. The same cannot be said for matches against stronger Austria (0-1) and Belgium (0-5), where Tunisia allowed 1.46 xGA and 4.06 xGA, respectively. That is especially concerning because Austria played more than a half with 10 men.

Lamouchi is building a more athletic, disciplined, and pragmatic model based around players from European leagues. As a result, several experienced members of the old core were left out, including Mohamed Ben Romdhane and Ferjani Sassi, who have combined for 160 national-team appearances. The main current issue is the condition of Hannibal Mejbri, who has one goal and four assists in his last 12 matches and was injured in the friendly against Austria. That is a serious blow to an already limited attacking group. Anis Ben Slimane, who had a solid season at Norwich with five goals and six assists in 26 matches, could take on the No. 10 role.

Sweden vs Tunisia Predicted Lineup

Sweden (3-4-1-2): Nordfeldt – Lindelöf, Lagerbielke, Hien – Svensson, Carlström, Ayari, Gudmundsson – Nygren – Isak, Gyökeres

Will Not Play: Krafth, Holm, Kulusevski (all injured), H. Larsson, Chalétros (both not in the squad)

Manager: Graham Potter

Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Dahmen – Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Abdi – Skhiri, Khedira – Gharbi, Ben Slimane, Achouri – Chaouat

Will Not Play: Mejbri (doubtful)

Manager: Sabri Lamouchi

Referee: Yael Falcón (Argentina)

Falcón has not officiated senior national-team matches outside South America. Within his home continent, the referee has shown a fairly strict style: across 27 matches in 2026, he averaged 4.81 yellow cards and 24.5 fouls per game.

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Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction: Sweden to Win at 1.89

• Main prediction: Tunisia has struggled against solid teams from other continents. The African side drew with Mali in regulation despite playing with a man advantage for about 90 minutes, and in a similar situation against Austria, it lost both on the scoreboard (0-1) and on xG (1.01 to 1.33). The 0-5 loss to Belgium was an even clearer warning sign. Sweden, meanwhile, has shown signs of improvement under Potter. The summer friendlies were not ideal in terms of results, but the lineup was constantly rotated. In the key matches against Ukraine and Poland, Sweden showed resilience and excellent finishing, scoring six goals from 4.03 xG. We lean toward Sweden to win at 1.89 and correct score 2-1 at 8.20.
• Goals prediction: However, it is concerning that Sweden has failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 straight matches, including friendlies. Under Potter, the Blue and Yellow have averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded. Looking at Tunisia’s last five matches against teams inside the FIFA top 40, with Tunisia ranked 45th and Sweden 38th, the African side averaged 0.6 goals scored and two goals conceded per game. Given that both teams have defensive concerns, both teams to score — yes at 2.02 looks like a good option.