Chicago Wolves vs Toronto Marlies 13 June 2026 Prediction

The Calder Cup Finals begin in Rosemont, where the Chicago Wolves will host the Toronto Marlies. Bookmakers give the home team a slight edge, but the line looks cautious. Both teams came through difficult semifinal series and deservedly reached the decisive matchup of the season.

Chicago

The Wolves had a difficult path to the final. In the previous round, the team trailed Colorado in the series but won two straight elimination games, including a 4-3 road win in Game 7. Chicago has eight wins in its last 12 playoff games. However, its home form before the final is less convincing. The Wolves have won only two of their last five home playoff games. The 7-3 loss to Colorado is especially concerning.

Toronto

The Marlies enter the final in very good form. The team beat Wilkes-Barre/Scranton 4-2 in the series. Goalie Artur Akhtyamov was excellent in the clinching game, stopping 39 of 40 shots. Toronto’s road numbers are especially impressive: the Marlies have won seven of their last eight away playoff games. On the road, they have beaten Laval, Cleveland, and Wilkes-Barre.

Head-to-Head Stats

The teams played four games against each other this season. They split those meetings with two wins each. The Toronto Marlies won 4-2 in November and 5-2 in March, while the Chicago Wolves took the other two games, 4-1 and 5-4 after a shootout. Everything points to a competitive final series.

Chicago Wolves vs Toronto Marlies Prediction: Toronto to Win Including OT at 1.70

Bookmakers may be slightly overvaluing home ice. Toronto had a more convincing path to the final, plays reliable defense, and has been very successful on the road. Considering that Chicago has lost four of its last seven home games, we estimate the probability of the Marlies avoiding defeat in regulation and winning the game at 64%. Our pick is Toronto to win including OT at 1.70.

Recent games involving both teams have been fairly high-scoring. In Chicago’s previous series, the teams averaged six goals per game. It is also worth noting that the last three head-to-head meetings went over five goals. Both teams regularly score three or four goals per game, so we estimate the probability of at least six goals in Game 1 of the final at 53%. Our pick is over 5.5 goals at 2.10.