Leipzig vs PSV 13 October 2026 Prediction

Neither team won its opening Champions League league-phase match. PSV drew 1-1 at home with Shakhtar Donetsk, while Leipzig lost 4-1 away to Como. Their meeting could have a significant impact on both teams’ chances of advancing.

Leipzig’s Home Form

Leipzig lost 4-1 at Como in its league-phase opener. The Champions League newcomers had the better of the game, leading 6-4 in shots on target and 2.98 to 1.36 in expected goals (xG). Leipzig’s Bundesliga form has also been inconsistent, though it beat Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 in its most recent league game. Leipzig generated 4.03 xG in that win, and goalkeeper Vandevoordt made nine saves.

Playing at home is an advantage for Leipzig. All three of its losses this season, across all competitions, have come on the road. At home, it has beaten Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0, Hamburg 5-0 and Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0. Its home winning streak stands at eight competitive matches.

Leipzig has few injury concerns. Marc Guiu is recovering from a thigh injury, while Assan Ouedraogo is out indefinitely and requires surgery. Each has made only two appearances this season. Rocco Reitz and Brajan Gruda returned to the squad against Eintracht Frankfurt, with Reitz coming on as a substitute.

PSV’s Attacking Absences

PSV opened the Champions League league phase with a 1-1 draw against Shakhtar Donetsk. The result reflected an even game: Peter Bosz’s side generated 0.44 xG to Shakhtar’s 0.62. It remains PSV’s only match this season in which it has scored fewer than two goals.

PSV beat Heerenveen 2-0 in the league before facing Leipzig, but the scoreline was more comfortable than the performance. PSV managed only two shots on target and allowed 1.55 xG. Goalkeeper Matej Kovar was named player of the match after making five saves.

PSV will be without several players. Ricardo Pepi was injured against Twente before the international break and substituted in the sixth minute. He is ruled out against Leipzig, a significant loss after scoring three goals in eight appearances across all competitions. Alassane Plea is not expected back before the end of the year. Fellow forwards Ouaissa and Lammers are also out, leaving PSV short of attacking options. Midfielder Paul Wanner, who has two assists in nine appearances this season, is unavailable as well.

Leipzig vs PSV Predicted Lineup

Leipzig (4-2-3-1): Vandevoordt; Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Banzuzi, El Aynaoui; Maksimovic, Nkunku, Nusa; Romulo

Out: Guiu, Ouedraogo, Baumgartner (all injured)

Manager: Martin Demichelis

PSV (4-2-3-1): Kovar; Dest, Flamingo, Obispo, Mauro Junior; Sano, Fernandez; Bajraktarevic, Til, Van Bommel; Mijnans

Out: Pepi, Plea, Lammers, Ouaissa, Wanner, Schouten, Sildillia (all injured)

Manager: Peter Bosz

Leipzig vs PSV Prediction: Leipzig to Win

Main pick: Despite a 4-1 loss to Como in its Champions League opener and two defeats in five Bundesliga games, Leipzig is favored here. It beat Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 last time out and has won eight straight competitive home matches. PSV drew 1-1 with Shakhtar in its Champions League opener, lost 3-2 to Twente before the international break and was less convincing than the 2-0 scoreline suggests against Heerenveen. The pick is Leipzig to win at 1.85.

Total goals pick: Both teams have scored regularly this season. Leipzig has 11 goals in three Bundesliga home games, while PSV has scored at least twice in all but one match across all competitions. The additional pick is over 3.5 total goals at 1.90.