Atalanta vs Venezia 12 October 2026 Prediction

Atalanta will look to return to the top half of the standings after a poor start under its new manager. It has won four of its last five meetings with Venezia.

Atalanta's Difficult Transition

Atalanta changed its style over the summer, moving away from the man-to-man pressing system used by Gian Piero Gasperini and his successors, Ivan Juric and Raffaele Palladino. Maurizio Sarri's possession-based approach has yet to take hold in Bergamo. Atalanta has taken no points from its last three Serie A matches, losing 2-1 to Roma, 2-0 to Juventus and 2-1 to Cagliari. It has dropped out of the top 10. The team ranks second-to-last in the league in expected goals, averaging 0.81 xG per match. Only Parma ranks lower at 0.69.

Atalanta also allows 1.88 expected goals against per match, the fourth-worst figure in Serie A. Injuries could make it harder to improve after the international break. Odilon Kossounou and Isak Hien, both potential starting center backs, are sidelined. Giacomo Raspadori, who has scored one of Atalanta's five league goals, is also a doubt following international duty. He has returned to training, but his availability remains uncertain.

Venezia Has Yet to Earn a Point

Three Serie A clubs have already changed managers, but Venezia, the league's only team without a point, has kept Giovanni Stroppa. Venezia has recorded 64 high turnovers through five matches, a total surpassed only by Roma. That pressing has not translated into results. Once opponents get past the first line, they find space to attack. Venezia has lost not only to stronger sides but also to teams closer to its level, including Frosinone (3-2) and Lecce (2-0).

Venezia is also missing several important players, particularly Gianluca Busio. The captain has been a key part of its midfield for several seasons, and the team has found it harder to stop quick counterattacks without him. Despite Stroppa's attacking approach, Venezia has scored only four Serie A goals. Akor Adams, the most expensive signing in club history, has scored just one of them.

Atalanta vs Venezia Predicted Lineup

Atalanta (4-2-3-1): Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Christensen, Scalvini, Bernasconi; Kessié, Éderson; Elmas, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Scamacca

Team news: Hien, Kossounou, K. Sulemana (injured); Raspadori (doubtful)

Manager: Maurizio Sarri

Venezia (3-5-2): Stankovic; Moreno, Jesus, Halal; Aino, Perez, Bašić, Zom, Correia; Yeboah, Adams

Team news: Franjic, Busio, Šverko, Adorante (injured)

Manager: Giovanni Stroppa

Referee: Paride Tremolada

Tremolada has rarely officiated in Serie A, but he has handled four matches involving Atalanta or Venezia. He issued at least four cautions in three of them and has shown at least five yellow cards in each of his last five Serie A matches.

Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction: Atalanta Handicap -1.5

Main pick: Atalanta struggled before the international break, but Venezia presents an opportunity to recover. Stroppa's high press and high defensive line have left space for opponents to exploit. Atalanta has players who can move the ball quickly into those areas. Venezia has faced three stronger opponents this season, Lazio, Milan and Fiorentina, and lost each match by two goals. The pick is Atalanta -1.5 at 2.31.

Total goals pick: Venezia has conceded at least twice in every Serie A match, but it has also scored four goals across its last three games. The additional pick is over 3.5 goals at 2.33.