AZ Alkmaar vs Willem 2 Tilburg 11 September 2026 Prediction

AZ Alkmaar leads the Eredivisie after five straight wins and is averaging more than three goals per game. Willem II is still looking for its first victory of the season and has conceded 13 goals in four matches. The visitors remain in poor form, with little indication that their results will improve in this matchup.

AZ Alkmaar: Strong Attack and First Place

AZ Alkmaar sits first in the 18-team standings with 15 points from five matches and a 16-5 goal difference. Manager L. Echteld’s side has yet to drop a point and has recorded several comfortable wins. The hosts beat Utrecht 4-1, Fortuna 2-0, Go Ahead Eagles 5-2, and Heerenveen 3-2 in their recent matches. AZ plays at a high tempo, moves the ball effectively down the flanks, and consistently creates scoring chances.

Willem II: Defensive Problems and the Relegation Zone

Willem II is 16th in the 18-team standings with one point from four matches and a 4-13 goal difference. Stegeman’s team lost 4-1 to Go Ahead Eagles, 4-1 to NEC Nijmegen, and 3-0 to Excelsior. Its only point came in a 2-2 draw with Heerenveen. Willem II is conceding more than three goals per game, while its defenders continue to make mistakes around their own penalty area.

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Predicted Lineup

AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1): De Busser; Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten, Chávez García; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Wesley, Kwakman, Daal; Meerdink

Out: Kasius, Resink (both injured)

Manager: L. Echteld

Willem II (4-2-3-1): Delanghe; Ter Avest, Stam, Lemmens, Tjoe-A-On; Bogarde, Twigt; Gürbüz, van Aalst, Slory; Han

Out: Kulum, Didillon, Lachkar, Schuurman, Zarrouk (all injured)

Manager: J. Stegeman

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction: AZ Alkmaar Handicap -2

Main prediction: AZ Alkmaar is in excellent form after winning each of its first five Eredivisie matches. Four of those victories came by at least two goals. Willem II has lost three of its four games and offered little resistance in its latest 3-0 defeat to Excelsior. The visitors are unlikely to keep this game close. The pick is AZ Alkmaar -2 handicap at 1.60. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 65%, making odds above 1.55 playable.

Totals prediction: Matches involving both teams have produced plenty of goals. AZ Alkmaar has scored 16 and conceded five through five rounds, giving its games an average total above four goals. At least four goals were scored in three of Willem II’s four matches, and the team has already conceded 13 times. The pick is Over 3.5 goals at 1.74. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 61%, making odds above 1.68 playable.