Venezia vs Fiorentina 11 September 2026 Prediction

Serie A Matchday 4 opens with two teams still looking for their first point of the season. Fiorentina has a much stronger reputation in Italian soccer, but its recent record against Venezia suggests a close matchup. The Viola have lost three of their last five league meetings with Venezia and won only once.

Major Defensive Problems

Giovanni Stroppa’s attacking approach has been effective in Serie B, but his teams have consistently struggled in the top flight. Venezia appears to be following the same pattern after losing its first three matches. A 2-0 defeat away to Milan was not unexpected, but losses to relegation rivals Lecce (0-2) and Frosinone (2-3) have left the manager under serious pressure. Venezia is allowing an average of 2.3 expected goals against per match, the second-worst mark in the league.

Injuries have made the defensive issues even more difficult to address. Center backs Marin Sverko and Bartol Franjic were already unavailable before the previous match. Armell Bella-Kotchap, signed from Verona for €7 million this summer, has now joined them on the injury list. Juan Jesus, a two-time Serie A champion with Napoli who arrived as a free agent, is not yet fully fit. Stroppa is therefore expected to start a makeshift back three of Schingtienne, Halal, and Haps against Fiorentina.

Vanoli Back in Charge

Fiorentina has already made Serie A’s first managerial change of the season. The Florence club signed 13 new players during a major summer rebuild, but Fabio Grosso was unable to produce results with the revamped squad. Paolo Vanoli, who helped the Viola avoid relegation last season, has returned. The 54-year-old takes over a team sitting 20th after defeats to Roma (0-4), Frosinone (0-3), and Torino (1-2).

The 4-3-3 formation worked well in the spring, so Vanoli is unlikely to change it. His immediate priority will be improving the defense. Vieri and Dragusin lacked coordination at center back in the opening matches, while the fullbacks regularly left too much space behind them. Vanoli is expected to restore the defensive unit that performed well last season, with Dodo, Pongracic, Ranieri, and Real Madrid loanee Valdepeñas likely to start at the Pier Luigi Penzo Stadium.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineup

Venezia (3-5-2): Stankovic; Schingtienne, Halal, Haps; Aino, Perez, Busio, Fernandez, Correia; Yeboah, Adams

Unavailable: Sverko, Adorante, Franjic, Bella-Kotchap (injured); Moreno, Basic, Jesus (doubtful)

Manager: Giovanni Stroppa

Fiorentina (4-3-3): De Gea; Dodo, Pongracic, Ranieri, Valdepeñas; Ndur, Fagioli, Atta; Mastantuono, Beto, Gonçalves

Unavailable: Parisi, Ulai (injured)

Manager: Paolo Vanoli

Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction: Fiorentina to Win

Main prediction: Fiorentina’s poor start has pushed the price on an away win higher than expected against a newly promoted opponent. The visitors still have a clear advantage in individual quality and should be able to exploit Venezia’s aggressive approach and defensive weaknesses. Vanoli’s return should also provide a boost. Fiorentina lost only one of its final 11 matches under him last season. The selection is Fiorentina to win at 2.38.

Goals prediction: Serie A has produced plenty of goals early in the season, and both teams have contributed to that trend. Venezia’s matches are averaging exactly three goals, while Fiorentina’s average is 3.33. Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is another option.